I would love your thoughts on this year's tackle class being so short armed measurement wise. Do you think, given Reid's history in Philly and here in Kansas City of having a longer-armed player at tackle and okay with a lack of arm length inside at guard or center that means he sticks to his formula, or is there a player you'd hop on the table to have him consider at tackle despite length concerns?
In many ways that's the best case scenario for KC, because it means Niang beat out Remmers (who was a decent RT last season) and that Long is healthy/back enough to beat out LDT for the starting spot. So I'm feeling optimistic. It would also mean the Chiefs have an ENTIRELY new offensive line, which would be crazy to see.
One dark horse outcome would be Eric Fisher's recovery going well enough that they sign him prior to the season starting, or Okung.
I am a fan of the idea of adding a quality #2 TE in the draft. I have seen Brevin Jordan linked to Kansas City, but the one I have fallen in love with is Tommy Tremble. Pass catcher/H-back type who could also fill the role that Sherman had but build on it) I am curious if there is a TE (other than Pitts of course) that you think would make a great TE2 for the Chiefs moving forward.
I have not looked at many potential draft picks, but I do know a lot of people I respect really like Tremble and expect him to be more impactful as a pro than in college given his combination of size and athleticism. I'm all for the Chiefs grabbing a TE2, but it feels like they'll forever cycle lower-level players there despite giving them a fair amount of snaps.
Way too early predictions, looking over what our schedule is right now and with 17 game seasons, do you think we inch closer to the 11-12 win scenarios of old? Or will our dominance continue where 13+ is just a given with Mahomes?
And while I'm a firm believer in us drafting truly the best available, sans QB, what do you feel is the more sexy pick? WR2, Kelce replacement, or LT? Which one would make you anticipate the season MORE?
If I were to bet, I'd say the Chiefs go 13-4 or 14-3 (MAN those records look weird). This is of course barring a major injury, but they were the best team in football all of last year until injuries destroyed them down the stretch and they caught the wrong team on a hot day.
I don't think a Kelce replacement makes any sense right now given his age and the fact that he just signed a longer-term contract, plus the fact that you can't really replace him unless you're somehow trading up for Pitts (which they can't do given how early he's going to be picked).
I could be talked into WR if one of the top guys falls to them, but to me LT is so crucial that unless you don't really like the options, that's the route to go.
I don't think there's much of a chance he moves back out of the first round. That just doesn't seem to be his style. I think there's a better chance he sees a tackle he really likes and goes up and gets him.
What is the purpose of the gameday inactives? With concussion protocol and now a longer season it seems like it would be better to have everyone available, why doesn't the player's association push for that?
I have absolutely no idea. I'm not sure it necessarily is a player's association issue there as much as larger rosters is. That's definitely one players should push for.
One thing to note, though, is that stars/veterans might not WANT larger rosters in that it creates more opportunities for others to beat them out of a job and further dilutes union voting with bottom-of-the-roster guys who are going to be unwilling to strike and will care more about veteran minimum money, etc. than things like the franchise tag.
I would be very surprised. It's easy to fall in love with under-the-radar types, but the unfortunate reality is they rarely turn into more than bottom end of the roster guys. Hopefully he can contribute on special teams and get himself paid through sticking around on the roster.
Hey, Seth. I apologize if this has already been discussed. I've been wrestling with this. The Chiefs have made it to the AFC Championship Game three years in a row. That is an absolutely incredible feat. Obviously, one of those teams won the Super Bowl, but which of those three teams was the most talented? How would you rank those teams in regard to talent on the roster from top to bottom?
I would rank the 2020 team HEALTHY as the most talented top to bottom, they were just absolutely decimated by injuries by the time they got to the big game. It's really unfortunate.
Are there some positions that are more or less "projectable" in the draft that might influence a decision to target those more projectable positions in the draft vs less projectable positions via free agency?
I think that cornerback is one of the most volatile, hard to predict positions in the draft. I don't have data on that, just my own anecdotal experience in terms of watching guys who made very little noise in college become excellent corners, and vice versa. It's just an odd position to figure out how to translate, and at the NFL level there's such a massive variance in how corners play from year to year as it is it's just a tough place to predict.
For years, we've heard how offensive line is "safer" and more predictable, but frankly outside the elite prospects I'm not sure how accurate that is.
For me, it's a bit easier to see whether that "it" exists with receivers as opposed to some other prospects. Same with edge rushers. I think that's in part because certain physical traits just stand out regardless of quality of competition, and are both necessary and translatable for the next level. For receivers burst and route running, as well as ball skills, are something you can spot. With edge rushers bend and a pass rush plan are noticeable.
Regarding last season--how much did the offensive line affect the running backs, in particular LeVeon Bell and CEH? I recall Reid saying something about Bell and learning the system. Was it just that his style was to wait for an opening (as opposed to just going where there was supposed to be a gap) and there never were decent openings? Also, I had expected more from CEH as a runner and wonder if the O line wasn't also an issue for him. Or wasn't his number called enough or do I have selective memory syndrome?
I bring this up due to all the analysis I have read recently of the new offensive linemen and different grades for them on pass blocking vs run blocking. No ax to grind.
The offensive line is always going to have a massive impact on the running backs, and last year was no exception. Reiter and the rest of the interior offensive line really struggled to generate much movement run blocking outside of a few games (and that was often a matter of an inferior opponent OR an opponent giving away free yards). It's hard to run their style of offense when linemen can't stick reach blocks or seal off backside pursuit, both things the OL struggled with.
I'm very interested to see what CEH looks like as a runner. It generally felt like he did the most he could with the plays he had, and injuries derailed his season more than I think many realize (he was on pace to have a very good statistical season despite not being featured as much in the pass game as I would've thought and despite the poor run blocking). That said, he's not a player like Jamaal Charles who can succeed consistently without blocking, which is part of the reason why there was so much kickback on him being selected in the first round.
Hey Seth, hope all is well in your neck of the woods. Are we seeing a shift in offensive line philosophy this off-season? They previously have focused on agile pass protectors, but seem to be aiming for stronger guys that are better run blockers. Love your work and hope you can taze Josh soon haha.
I don't think it's too much of a shift, as they're still looking for technicians who can get out in space. I think there might be more of a focus in grabbing guys who are a bit more proven in the run game, though, which would be a very positive step despite the run game's relative lack of importance.
Thanks for the kind words, and I hope so too haha!
Rank the positions based on when you think they'll be chosen: LT, C, WR, ILB, OLB. What are your go to burger toppings and what's one that you love that other people don't?
I'm going to get roasted for this, but I'm a ketchup and cheese guy and that's it. I think a burger is all about the meat and the bread being done well, and I don't need much else to make it tremendous. That said, I have the taste buds of a 5-year-old...
Hardman was frustrating last season. For a time he was asked to take on a bigger role and looked like he might be ready for it, and then concentration drops and miscommunications seemed to cause real issues. The frustrating thing for me was that you can see real progress in his route running as his rookie year progresses in terms of timing/cuts, but that didn't seem to carry through to a jump from year 1 to year 2.
I still believe he's a uniquely talented player, with genuinely unusual speed combined with oddly quick feet that give him the potential to be a dangerous route runner. He's also shown the ability to make tough catches.
A lot of fans have given up on him taking on a bigger role (no doubt due to the disappointment after being told by yours truly for a full offseason not to sleep on Hardman, only to see him stay the same player in year 2 that he was in year 1), but I haven't. I'm curious what year 3 looks like for him, and believe that those who have written him off as a role player may have done so prematurely.
I logged in to ask a similar question. Thanks! I think that even if Hardman doesn't progress much beyond Rich Man's D'Anthony Thomas, the fact that you can scheme up 3-5 plays for him makes him an interesting weapon. Put him in motion and slow down the edge rusher who fears the jet sweep, and for the love of everything good, let him make double moves on Marcus Peters. We have been so spoiled by having Hill and Kelce, who in addition to being elite athletes can also read the game better than almost anyone else out there. Mahomes and Kelce are approaching Manning-Harrison levels of mind meld, and Hill's ability to change direction and use his speed horizontally and vertically are unparalleled. Hardman is never going to be Hill or Kelce, but he is going to pop up with some devastating plays. If we can get Hunt-level production out of CEH, with I think is on the board, then that is enough from Hardman for the offense to roll up some 2018 numbers.
I went from thinking his ceiling was Tyler Lockett given he started as a CB at Georgia and showed real growth in his route running after 2019 to questioning if he can be more than a WR3 in the slot where Andy needs to scheme specific plays to get him the ball in space. The concentration drops last season, especially, were frustrating.
It felt like a step back, but it's hard to truly assess him given his best games in late-2019 often coincided with Watkin's availability and individual best games, as well.
Is a legitimate WR2 opposite Tyreek a requirement to get the most out of Mecole's ability? I hope not.
Wide receivers come in a lot of different shapes, sizes and abilities. What should the Chiefs be looking for in terms of filling out their receiver corps? Should they be looking to double/triple down on pure speed? Do they want/need a physical/bigger receiver to complement Hill and Hardman, or is Kelce enough? How highly should they value secondary skills such run-blocking, route-running ability, creativity/intelligence, and good hands?
The biggest thing for success in Reid's system is speed/quickness, and route running (which is not unique to Reid's system, to be fair). Size is an overrated trait in receiver, ball skills and the ability to win at the line are a hundred times more important than that.
If I were KC I would strongly consider one of the top WR talents. Without having done a serious look at the prospects available, Bateman is a guy I really like who I think will translate well at the next level.
There is talk of the Chiefs letting Tyreek walk at the end of his contract. We know speed doesn't last forever. How do the chiefs plan for life after Tyreek?
I guess I haven't seen that talk, nor even heard it whispered by anyone I know.
Speed doesn't last forever, but it's worth noting that Hill has a whole host of other attributes to offer. He's an elite receiver who is an incredible fit for KC. Because of that, there's no replacing him per se, even if they went out and got another burner he wouldn't be Hill barring some freakish occurrence that is about a million to one possibility.
That said, Hill is going to be EXPENSIVE on his next contract. There's no way around it. He took a slight discount in his last deal, in part I assume due to the legal issues that had come up. With those in the rearview mirror, I assume he'll be looking to break the bank with his next deal. And by and large he's earned every penny.
That said, his deal doesn't expire until after 2022, and the Chiefs could franchise him, so they realistically control his rights for another 3 years at this point. That gives them plenty of time to try and work something out.
Hey Seth,
I would love your thoughts on this year's tackle class being so short armed measurement wise. Do you think, given Reid's history in Philly and here in Kansas City of having a longer-armed player at tackle and okay with a lack of arm length inside at guard or center that means he sticks to his formula, or is there a player you'd hop on the table to have him consider at tackle despite length concerns?
Thanks much
Rich F
What is your prediction for Week 1 starters on the OL and what position each starter will play?
I think the Week 1 Starters will go as follows:
LT- Rookie
LG- Thuney
C- Blythe
RG- Long
RT- Niang
In many ways that's the best case scenario for KC, because it means Niang beat out Remmers (who was a decent RT last season) and that Long is healthy/back enough to beat out LDT for the starting spot. So I'm feeling optimistic. It would also mean the Chiefs have an ENTIRELY new offensive line, which would be crazy to see.
One dark horse outcome would be Eric Fisher's recovery going well enough that they sign him prior to the season starting, or Okung.
I am a fan of the idea of adding a quality #2 TE in the draft. I have seen Brevin Jordan linked to Kansas City, but the one I have fallen in love with is Tommy Tremble. Pass catcher/H-back type who could also fill the role that Sherman had but build on it) I am curious if there is a TE (other than Pitts of course) that you think would make a great TE2 for the Chiefs moving forward.
I have not looked at many potential draft picks, but I do know a lot of people I respect really like Tremble and expect him to be more impactful as a pro than in college given his combination of size and athleticism. I'm all for the Chiefs grabbing a TE2, but it feels like they'll forever cycle lower-level players there despite giving them a fair amount of snaps.
Way too early predictions, looking over what our schedule is right now and with 17 game seasons, do you think we inch closer to the 11-12 win scenarios of old? Or will our dominance continue where 13+ is just a given with Mahomes?
And while I'm a firm believer in us drafting truly the best available, sans QB, what do you feel is the more sexy pick? WR2, Kelce replacement, or LT? Which one would make you anticipate the season MORE?
If I were to bet, I'd say the Chiefs go 13-4 or 14-3 (MAN those records look weird). This is of course barring a major injury, but they were the best team in football all of last year until injuries destroyed them down the stretch and they caught the wrong team on a hot day.
I don't think a Kelce replacement makes any sense right now given his age and the fact that he just signed a longer-term contract, plus the fact that you can't really replace him unless you're somehow trading up for Pitts (which they can't do given how early he's going to be picked).
I could be talked into WR if one of the top guys falls to them, but to me LT is so crucial that unless you don't really like the options, that's the route to go.
Do you think Veach moves out of 31 in the 1st round? Chances he moves up or out of the 1st?
I don't think there's much of a chance he moves back out of the first round. That just doesn't seem to be his style. I think there's a better chance he sees a tackle he really likes and goes up and gets him.
What is the purpose of the gameday inactives? With concussion protocol and now a longer season it seems like it would be better to have everyone available, why doesn't the player's association push for that?
I have absolutely no idea. I'm not sure it necessarily is a player's association issue there as much as larger rosters is. That's definitely one players should push for.
One thing to note, though, is that stars/veterans might not WANT larger rosters in that it creates more opportunities for others to beat them out of a job and further dilutes union voting with bottom-of-the-roster guys who are going to be unwilling to strike and will care more about veteran minimum money, etc. than things like the franchise tag.
Do you think Tarjae Sharpe will be a key contributor to our Wide Receiver group?
I would be very surprised. It's easy to fall in love with under-the-radar types, but the unfortunate reality is they rarely turn into more than bottom end of the roster guys. Hopefully he can contribute on special teams and get himself paid through sticking around on the roster.
Hey, Seth. I apologize if this has already been discussed. I've been wrestling with this. The Chiefs have made it to the AFC Championship Game three years in a row. That is an absolutely incredible feat. Obviously, one of those teams won the Super Bowl, but which of those three teams was the most talented? How would you rank those teams in regard to talent on the roster from top to bottom?
I would rank the 2020 team HEALTHY as the most talented top to bottom, they were just absolutely decimated by injuries by the time they got to the big game. It's really unfortunate.
If the Chiefs ceased to exist, which NFL team would you support instead?
Like I said above, I think it would be (at this point) whatever team Mahomes landed on.
Are there some positions that are more or less "projectable" in the draft that might influence a decision to target those more projectable positions in the draft vs less projectable positions via free agency?
I think that cornerback is one of the most volatile, hard to predict positions in the draft. I don't have data on that, just my own anecdotal experience in terms of watching guys who made very little noise in college become excellent corners, and vice versa. It's just an odd position to figure out how to translate, and at the NFL level there's such a massive variance in how corners play from year to year as it is it's just a tough place to predict.
For years, we've heard how offensive line is "safer" and more predictable, but frankly outside the elite prospects I'm not sure how accurate that is.
For me, it's a bit easier to see whether that "it" exists with receivers as opposed to some other prospects. Same with edge rushers. I think that's in part because certain physical traits just stand out regardless of quality of competition, and are both necessary and translatable for the next level. For receivers burst and route running, as well as ball skills, are something you can spot. With edge rushers bend and a pass rush plan are noticeable.
Regarding last season--how much did the offensive line affect the running backs, in particular LeVeon Bell and CEH? I recall Reid saying something about Bell and learning the system. Was it just that his style was to wait for an opening (as opposed to just going where there was supposed to be a gap) and there never were decent openings? Also, I had expected more from CEH as a runner and wonder if the O line wasn't also an issue for him. Or wasn't his number called enough or do I have selective memory syndrome?
I bring this up due to all the analysis I have read recently of the new offensive linemen and different grades for them on pass blocking vs run blocking. No ax to grind.
The offensive line is always going to have a massive impact on the running backs, and last year was no exception. Reiter and the rest of the interior offensive line really struggled to generate much movement run blocking outside of a few games (and that was often a matter of an inferior opponent OR an opponent giving away free yards). It's hard to run their style of offense when linemen can't stick reach blocks or seal off backside pursuit, both things the OL struggled with.
I'm very interested to see what CEH looks like as a runner. It generally felt like he did the most he could with the plays he had, and injuries derailed his season more than I think many realize (he was on pace to have a very good statistical season despite not being featured as much in the pass game as I would've thought and despite the poor run blocking). That said, he's not a player like Jamaal Charles who can succeed consistently without blocking, which is part of the reason why there was so much kickback on him being selected in the first round.
Hey Seth, hope all is well in your neck of the woods. Are we seeing a shift in offensive line philosophy this off-season? They previously have focused on agile pass protectors, but seem to be aiming for stronger guys that are better run blockers. Love your work and hope you can taze Josh soon haha.
I don't think it's too much of a shift, as they're still looking for technicians who can get out in space. I think there might be more of a focus in grabbing guys who are a bit more proven in the run game, though, which would be a very positive step despite the run game's relative lack of importance.
Thanks for the kind words, and I hope so too haha!
Rank the positions based on when you think they'll be chosen: LT, C, WR, ILB, OLB. What are your go to burger toppings and what's one that you love that other people don't?
LT, WR, C, DE, ILB, OLB.
I'm going to get roasted for this, but I'm a ketchup and cheese guy and that's it. I think a burger is all about the meat and the bread being done well, and I don't need much else to make it tremendous. That said, I have the taste buds of a 5-year-old...
What are your current thoughts on Hardman?
Hardman was frustrating last season. For a time he was asked to take on a bigger role and looked like he might be ready for it, and then concentration drops and miscommunications seemed to cause real issues. The frustrating thing for me was that you can see real progress in his route running as his rookie year progresses in terms of timing/cuts, but that didn't seem to carry through to a jump from year 1 to year 2.
I still believe he's a uniquely talented player, with genuinely unusual speed combined with oddly quick feet that give him the potential to be a dangerous route runner. He's also shown the ability to make tough catches.
A lot of fans have given up on him taking on a bigger role (no doubt due to the disappointment after being told by yours truly for a full offseason not to sleep on Hardman, only to see him stay the same player in year 2 that he was in year 1), but I haven't. I'm curious what year 3 looks like for him, and believe that those who have written him off as a role player may have done so prematurely.
I logged in to ask a similar question. Thanks! I think that even if Hardman doesn't progress much beyond Rich Man's D'Anthony Thomas, the fact that you can scheme up 3-5 plays for him makes him an interesting weapon. Put him in motion and slow down the edge rusher who fears the jet sweep, and for the love of everything good, let him make double moves on Marcus Peters. We have been so spoiled by having Hill and Kelce, who in addition to being elite athletes can also read the game better than almost anyone else out there. Mahomes and Kelce are approaching Manning-Harrison levels of mind meld, and Hill's ability to change direction and use his speed horizontally and vertically are unparalleled. Hardman is never going to be Hill or Kelce, but he is going to pop up with some devastating plays. If we can get Hunt-level production out of CEH, with I think is on the board, then that is enough from Hardman for the offense to roll up some 2018 numbers.
I went from thinking his ceiling was Tyler Lockett given he started as a CB at Georgia and showed real growth in his route running after 2019 to questioning if he can be more than a WR3 in the slot where Andy needs to scheme specific plays to get him the ball in space. The concentration drops last season, especially, were frustrating.
It felt like a step back, but it's hard to truly assess him given his best games in late-2019 often coincided with Watkin's availability and individual best games, as well.
Is a legitimate WR2 opposite Tyreek a requirement to get the most out of Mecole's ability? I hope not.
Wide receivers come in a lot of different shapes, sizes and abilities. What should the Chiefs be looking for in terms of filling out their receiver corps? Should they be looking to double/triple down on pure speed? Do they want/need a physical/bigger receiver to complement Hill and Hardman, or is Kelce enough? How highly should they value secondary skills such run-blocking, route-running ability, creativity/intelligence, and good hands?
The biggest thing for success in Reid's system is speed/quickness, and route running (which is not unique to Reid's system, to be fair). Size is an overrated trait in receiver, ball skills and the ability to win at the line are a hundred times more important than that.
If I were KC I would strongly consider one of the top WR talents. Without having done a serious look at the prospects available, Bateman is a guy I really like who I think will translate well at the next level.
There is talk of the Chiefs letting Tyreek walk at the end of his contract. We know speed doesn't last forever. How do the chiefs plan for life after Tyreek?
I guess I haven't seen that talk, nor even heard it whispered by anyone I know.
Speed doesn't last forever, but it's worth noting that Hill has a whole host of other attributes to offer. He's an elite receiver who is an incredible fit for KC. Because of that, there's no replacing him per se, even if they went out and got another burner he wouldn't be Hill barring some freakish occurrence that is about a million to one possibility.
That said, Hill is going to be EXPENSIVE on his next contract. There's no way around it. He took a slight discount in his last deal, in part I assume due to the legal issues that had come up. With those in the rearview mirror, I assume he'll be looking to break the bank with his next deal. And by and large he's earned every penny.
That said, his deal doesn't expire until after 2022, and the Chiefs could franchise him, so they realistically control his rights for another 3 years at this point. That gives them plenty of time to try and work something out.