Who do you see as the primary threat to the Chiefs within the division at this time, pre-draft, and what's your projection for the finish order of the AFC West?
I think that the Chargers are the biggest threat. I really like Herbert and I think that a little experience will help him avoid some of the mistakes he made last year, which in part balanced out (in a bad way) the tremendous plays/throws he can make. They also have an excellent defense on paper yet again, though I think losing Ingram hurts them more than some might think. He can still play and added a lot to that defense that gave KC problems.
The Raiders play the Chiefs tough (Gruden really seems to have Spags number lately and their personnel is built to give KC problems as things currently stand) but are rebuilding and seem to be alienating players. The Broncos have Drew Lock until further notice. So right now, it's the Chargers.
So that's an interesting question, and one I'll be writing about more at length at some point. For starters, it's worth noting that KC had a great offense last year with Remmers at RT basically the entire season (he really should get more credit for playing decently at RT all year), so it's not necessarily just a question of improving on Schwartz (one can't in pass pro), it's a matter of improving on last year.
Brown-Thuney-Blythe-LDT/Long-Niang/Remmers is a MARKEDLY better offensive line than Fisher-Allegretti-Reiter/Wylie-Remmers, which is what the Chiefs lined up with most of last year.
Even if you throw in Schwartz over Remmers for last year's line, the theoretical massive improvement at LG and improvement (in theory) at RG while standing pat at center (Reiter vs Blythe is a fascinating subject, I tend to lean a BIT towards Blythe as he's a bit stronger at the point of attack, but very similar players), alongside Brown vs Fish (if Brown is who he was in BAL last year it's a slight upgrade, but being 24 there's potential for way more)... and you've got improvement across the board.
Again, this is all in theory. It could go a different way if Brown regresses, Thuney doesn't translate, Blythe is subpar, and Long/LDT can't come back strong, etc.
But it's the other way too. If Brown keeps improving like he has every year, Thuney is just himself, Blythe plays at the same level he did in LA, either Long or LDT can be 85% of what they were, and Niang can beat out Remmers... you're looking at a MASSIVE improvement in last year's line.
I wouldn't count on things being completely different, but I'm guessing we'll see more combo blocks featuring the left side. as both Blythe and Brown have more power than their predecessors to move guys on double teams (and Thuney is better at every facet of run blocking than Allegretti, with all due respect to the youngster). You might see more of that than pulling/misdirection/etc, especially as the Chiefs utilize RPO's a ton.
What is the long term outlook for the Chiefs offensive line? What are the chances they use a 2nd round pick on an offensive linemen who may not play this year but has a chance to be a fixture on the offensive line in years to come?
Check out my answer to Dennis below for some context to this, but right now they're sitting in a good spot IF Niang works out, as they'll have long-term solutions at LT, LG, and RT. C and RG are worth looking at, but I definitely believe they should look into grabbing a C in the 2nd round to compete with Blythe and either sit a year or just get on the field. There are some really talented guys they could take.
hahaha nice. So it depends on why I'm picking them to add. Is it purely for my own enjoyment? In that case it's Charles and DT hands down. HOWEVER, given the current makeup of the team, neither might necessarily be my choice if it's for purposes of making the team as good as possible. Here's 3 alternative routes I'd go to maximize improvement:
Shields and Roaf- I don't know if I need to explain, but if the Chiefs added these two their line would be almost undoubtedly the best in the league. I genuinely believe they could put up 40 points a game with a line that consisted of Brown/Thuney/Blythe/Shields/Roaf given the existence of Mahomes/Hill/Kelce.
DT and DJ- The Chiefs could use better ILB play, and almost no one is better than DJ to help both the pass and the run defense. DT goes without saying, though he's not necessarily a "fit" with what Spags does he would help the pass rush be exponentially more dangerous.
Tony G and PEAK Justin Houston- It's easy to forget now, 7 years later and considering how things ended, but Houston at his apex was the best pass rusher in the league and an incredible run defender as well. And Tony G's resume speaks for itself.
I think of all of these imaginary worlds I like going OL the best. Because that's just how I roll.
But really, honestly, if I DID have this power? I'd go with Jamaal as one of them automatically. He deserves to play on this squad, even if it's not the move that helps the team the most.
I remember watching Houston absolutely stonewall a pulling guard who had a running start. Houston was standing still. I think it was against the Eagles. I don't know that I've ever seen that. Amazing.
I think Reid will continue to tweak things like he does every year, but the overall system will be fundamentally the same. Where it (in theory) helps will be in having less interior pressure and allowing for a more consistent run game. The latter isn't a huge deal, but it would definitely assist the Chiefs in terms of grabbing some easy RPO yards. But the biggest thing will be in trying to lower the pressure percentages from the middle, which will allow them to attack down the field as they want to do.
Totinos are, and I don't say this lightly, not good. I mean, it's still a frozen pizza so it's not terrible. And you can't beat the price. But it's, like, 20th on the list.
I'd love to live in KC! However, I have a job I love and family up here in the frigid north, so unless something crazy happens, here is where I'll stay. That said, Mrs. MNchiefsfan consistently talks about being somewhere less horrible in the winter, and KC certainly meets that requirement!
I appreciate everything Smith did for the team. He helped bring it from a laughingstock to a respectable franchise in a single year, and improved on his weak areas while he was in town. He played a HUGE role in a pivotal time in Chiefs' history in bringing it back from the dead (along with Reid, of course) and then in mentoring Patrick Mahomes when he didn't have to do that.
However... the Ring of Honor should be reserved for the greatest players in Chiefs history, and he's not one of them. He's a good but not great player, and I don't think Rings of Honor are made for such things. Should he go down in Chiefs lore? Absolutely. But does he belong up there with Len Dawson, DT, Shields, and the like? No, I don't think so.
The guys you mention here are basically hall of famers. Is that how you see it or can it also be a place for guys that mean more to the franchise than they did to the league as a whole?
What is your projection for the Chiefs position 1 year from now? Will we be drafting for depth or do you think there will be new holes that need to be fixed
I think they'll always be aiming to drafting for depth, filling out the roster and development. The Brown trade is yet another example. They don't want to draft for need, and I get that. Drafting for need is what gets teams in trouble, as rookies are rarely able to help out of the gate in big roles AND it can lead to reaching for a lesser talented player at a position you need the immediate help.
I think we're going to see the Chiefs maneuver every year to try and have their roster largely "set" for each year (even if long term fixes aren't in place, like with center in 2021) so that they can maintain flexibility with who and how they draft.
What is the best outcome for the 2021 Chiefs season that you'd be willing to place an over on in a ghost pepper bet. Or, to phrase it in a less fun but hopefully less confusing way, what do you think the absolute floor is for the 2021 Chiefs?
Barring injuries being a massive issue, the floor is 11 wins. They're too good for anything else. People are thinking a lot about the Super Bowl loss, and I get that, but keep in mind prior to that game Mahomes had NEVER lost a game by more than one score. There's a reason for that. Until we see a huge dropoff from Kelce/Hill or there's some sort of injury disaster, 11 wins is the floor.
So much of the offseason chatter has been on O-line and Edge, but shouldn't there be some serious concern about the Chiefs' linebacker situation? Wilson is gone, Gay is coming off injury and wasn't trusted with much last year, etc, Niemann isn't the answer, etc. Do you see the Chiefs going after one in the draft and/or addressing the position in free agency? What would you do?
It wouldn't terribly surprise me to see them go after a linebacker. The depth is definitely frightening with Wilson walking. That said, it's really hard for me to figure out how KC views linebackers given some of the decisions they've made in terms of who gets playing time.
For me, there are other positions that have a lot higher importance, but they should keep their eyes open for players who fall to the 2nd that have a ton of talent (like Gay) for sure.
To get right? Edge. Whether that's in-house, draft, a FA (I still want them to snag Ingram), I think that edge is a much more important position in their defense than the 3rd LB. Obviously depth is a concern, etc, but they really need their pass rush to be more consistent than it was last year. Some of that lands on Clark, but a great deal of it lands on them finding a consistent 3rd dude. Reed helps, but getting edge right would have that pass rush downright scary.
I think Wharton has a ton of potential. He's got exceptional explosion and more functional strength than one would expect for a player with his athleticism. He's also got heavy hands in the right moments.
The difference for him will be whether he can do things with more consistency or not. That's what separates role players from starters (and starters from stars) at the NFL level. Everyone who makes it to the NFL is going to have some "flash" stats for the most part. They're all part of an incredibly exclusive group of athletes.
With Wharton, it'll have to be in the margins. He'll need to improve his hand usage and consistent power, and he'll also have to come up with a plan as a pass rusher. Right now he's winning with athleticism or his unexpected power to toss guys aside and then run at the QB. That's not enough to consistently win.
He's already a guy who can provide some value as a rotational player, but if he wants to be more he'll need to be more consistent.
Do you put any stock in Mike Remmers’ agent saying that the chiefs signed him as specifically the starting right tackle back when his new contract was announced?
I don't, no. He's going to get a chance to compete with Niang, but agents are just going to say what they say.
That said, I love having Remmers back at RT. At worst, they get a guy who they've seen can be an average (non-weakness) player at that spot. If Niang beats him out, it's not because they're desperate, it's because he earned it. You always want those sort of veterans on your team. He can provide some depth as well. Just not at left tackle, where he clearly isn't comfortable.
The Chiefs lost the Super Bowl because they didn’t have enough depth at offensive line. They have solidified the starting positions but do you think they have the quality backups to avoid a similar situation if injuries occur?
No NFL team is ready to lose 4 starters (LDT, Osemele, Fisher, Schwartz) and come out "OK," it's just not the reality of the league right now. Most teams don't have 5 STARTERS they love, let alone depth they love.
You have to remember that a quality backup is still a guy that (generally) 32 teams decided wasn't good enough to be a starter. So you do that at multiple positions and what you have is a line full of guys who really shouldn't be consistently starting. You can do that with a couple of guys if you're lucky. But as many as KC had by the time the Super Bowl last year? No chance.
No idea across the league, but in Kansas City I'd keep an eye on Willie Gay Jr. (a pretty obvious one, but still). He's got a tremendous amount of talent and I think the team is excited to see what they can do with that talent.
Who do you see as the primary threat to the Chiefs within the division at this time, pre-draft, and what's your projection for the finish order of the AFC West?
I think that the Chargers are the biggest threat. I really like Herbert and I think that a little experience will help him avoid some of the mistakes he made last year, which in part balanced out (in a bad way) the tremendous plays/throws he can make. They also have an excellent defense on paper yet again, though I think losing Ingram hurts them more than some might think. He can still play and added a lot to that defense that gave KC problems.
The Raiders play the Chiefs tough (Gruden really seems to have Spags number lately and their personnel is built to give KC problems as things currently stand) but are rebuilding and seem to be alienating players. The Broncos have Drew Lock until further notice. So right now, it's the Chargers.
Do you think the (possible) improved guard play this year will overcome the downgrade at RT (no one is Schwartz)
So that's an interesting question, and one I'll be writing about more at length at some point. For starters, it's worth noting that KC had a great offense last year with Remmers at RT basically the entire season (he really should get more credit for playing decently at RT all year), so it's not necessarily just a question of improving on Schwartz (one can't in pass pro), it's a matter of improving on last year.
Brown-Thuney-Blythe-LDT/Long-Niang/Remmers is a MARKEDLY better offensive line than Fisher-Allegretti-Reiter/Wylie-Remmers, which is what the Chiefs lined up with most of last year.
Even if you throw in Schwartz over Remmers for last year's line, the theoretical massive improvement at LG and improvement (in theory) at RG while standing pat at center (Reiter vs Blythe is a fascinating subject, I tend to lean a BIT towards Blythe as he's a bit stronger at the point of attack, but very similar players), alongside Brown vs Fish (if Brown is who he was in BAL last year it's a slight upgrade, but being 24 there's potential for way more)... and you've got improvement across the board.
Again, this is all in theory. It could go a different way if Brown regresses, Thuney doesn't translate, Blythe is subpar, and Long/LDT can't come back strong, etc.
But it's the other way too. If Brown keeps improving like he has every year, Thuney is just himself, Blythe plays at the same level he did in LA, either Long or LDT can be 85% of what they were, and Niang can beat out Remmers... you're looking at a MASSIVE improvement in last year's line.
What type of differences do you see in the run game with the changes to the OL this season?
I wouldn't count on things being completely different, but I'm guessing we'll see more combo blocks featuring the left side. as both Blythe and Brown have more power than their predecessors to move guys on double teams (and Thuney is better at every facet of run blocking than Allegretti, with all due respect to the youngster). You might see more of that than pulling/misdirection/etc, especially as the Chiefs utilize RPO's a ton.
What is the long term outlook for the Chiefs offensive line? What are the chances they use a 2nd round pick on an offensive linemen who may not play this year but has a chance to be a fixture on the offensive line in years to come?
Check out my answer to Dennis below for some context to this, but right now they're sitting in a good spot IF Niang works out, as they'll have long-term solutions at LT, LG, and RT. C and RG are worth looking at, but I definitely believe they should look into grabbing a C in the 2nd round to compete with Blythe and either sit a year or just get on the field. There are some really talented guys they could take.
You get to take two players from another era and add them to this Chiefs team, who is it and why is it Jamaal Charles and Derrick Thomas?
hahaha nice. So it depends on why I'm picking them to add. Is it purely for my own enjoyment? In that case it's Charles and DT hands down. HOWEVER, given the current makeup of the team, neither might necessarily be my choice if it's for purposes of making the team as good as possible. Here's 3 alternative routes I'd go to maximize improvement:
Shields and Roaf- I don't know if I need to explain, but if the Chiefs added these two their line would be almost undoubtedly the best in the league. I genuinely believe they could put up 40 points a game with a line that consisted of Brown/Thuney/Blythe/Shields/Roaf given the existence of Mahomes/Hill/Kelce.
DT and DJ- The Chiefs could use better ILB play, and almost no one is better than DJ to help both the pass and the run defense. DT goes without saying, though he's not necessarily a "fit" with what Spags does he would help the pass rush be exponentially more dangerous.
Tony G and PEAK Justin Houston- It's easy to forget now, 7 years later and considering how things ended, but Houston at his apex was the best pass rusher in the league and an incredible run defender as well. And Tony G's resume speaks for itself.
I think of all of these imaginary worlds I like going OL the best. Because that's just how I roll.
But really, honestly, if I DID have this power? I'd go with Jamaal as one of them automatically. He deserves to play on this squad, even if it's not the move that helps the team the most.
Interesting that you didn’t select any WRs. If you did who would it be? I’m thinking Horn or maybe Rison.
I remember watching Houston absolutely stonewall a pulling guard who had a running start. Houston was standing still. I think it was against the Eagles. I don't know that I've ever seen that. Amazing.
How does the potential improvement of O line affect our offense this year?
I think Reid will continue to tweak things like he does every year, but the overall system will be fundamentally the same. Where it (in theory) helps will be in having less interior pressure and allowing for a more consistent run game. The latter isn't a huge deal, but it would definitely assist the Chiefs in terms of grabbing some easy RPO yards. But the biggest thing will be in trying to lower the pressure percentages from the middle, which will allow them to attack down the field as they want to do.
How great can Patrick be if he doesn't have 340+ lb guys blowing up the middle and in his face immediately? Looking forward to it.
Why is Totinos pizza significantly better than any other frozen personal pizzas? Also when are you going to forsake MN and move to the KC area?
Totinos are, and I don't say this lightly, not good. I mean, it's still a frozen pizza so it's not terrible. And you can't beat the price. But it's, like, 20th on the list.
I'd love to live in KC! However, I have a job I love and family up here in the frigid north, so unless something crazy happens, here is where I'll stay. That said, Mrs. MNchiefsfan consistently talks about being somewhere less horrible in the winter, and KC certainly meets that requirement!
Is Alex Smith a "Ring of Honor" guy?
Well...
I WANT to say yes. But no. I don't think so.
I appreciate everything Smith did for the team. He helped bring it from a laughingstock to a respectable franchise in a single year, and improved on his weak areas while he was in town. He played a HUGE role in a pivotal time in Chiefs' history in bringing it back from the dead (along with Reid, of course) and then in mentoring Patrick Mahomes when he didn't have to do that.
However... the Ring of Honor should be reserved for the greatest players in Chiefs history, and he's not one of them. He's a good but not great player, and I don't think Rings of Honor are made for such things. Should he go down in Chiefs lore? Absolutely. But does he belong up there with Len Dawson, DT, Shields, and the like? No, I don't think so.
The guys you mention here are basically hall of famers. Is that how you see it or can it also be a place for guys that mean more to the franchise than they did to the league as a whole?
What is your projection for the Chiefs position 1 year from now? Will we be drafting for depth or do you think there will be new holes that need to be fixed
I think they'll always be aiming to drafting for depth, filling out the roster and development. The Brown trade is yet another example. They don't want to draft for need, and I get that. Drafting for need is what gets teams in trouble, as rookies are rarely able to help out of the gate in big roles AND it can lead to reaching for a lesser talented player at a position you need the immediate help.
I think we're going to see the Chiefs maneuver every year to try and have their roster largely "set" for each year (even if long term fixes aren't in place, like with center in 2021) so that they can maintain flexibility with who and how they draft.
What is the best outcome for the 2021 Chiefs season that you'd be willing to place an over on in a ghost pepper bet. Or, to phrase it in a less fun but hopefully less confusing way, what do you think the absolute floor is for the 2021 Chiefs?
Barring injuries being a massive issue, the floor is 11 wins. They're too good for anything else. People are thinking a lot about the Super Bowl loss, and I get that, but keep in mind prior to that game Mahomes had NEVER lost a game by more than one score. There's a reason for that. Until we see a huge dropoff from Kelce/Hill or there's some sort of injury disaster, 11 wins is the floor.
Reminder that there is 17 games this year so the floor might be 12 wins.
Touche!
So much of the offseason chatter has been on O-line and Edge, but shouldn't there be some serious concern about the Chiefs' linebacker situation? Wilson is gone, Gay is coming off injury and wasn't trusted with much last year, etc, Niemann isn't the answer, etc. Do you see the Chiefs going after one in the draft and/or addressing the position in free agency? What would you do?
It wouldn't terribly surprise me to see them go after a linebacker. The depth is definitely frightening with Wilson walking. That said, it's really hard for me to figure out how KC views linebackers given some of the decisions they've made in terms of who gets playing time.
For me, there are other positions that have a lot higher importance, but they should keep their eyes open for players who fall to the 2nd that have a ton of talent (like Gay) for sure.
Which is more important for the Chiefs to get right this year: EDGE or LB?
To get right? Edge. Whether that's in-house, draft, a FA (I still want them to snag Ingram), I think that edge is a much more important position in their defense than the 3rd LB. Obviously depth is a concern, etc, but they really need their pass rush to be more consistent than it was last year. Some of that lands on Clark, but a great deal of it lands on them finding a consistent 3rd dude. Reed helps, but getting edge right would have that pass rush downright scary.
Do you think Tershawn Wharton can turn into a Jarran Reed type player with more experience?
I think Wharton has a ton of potential. He's got exceptional explosion and more functional strength than one would expect for a player with his athleticism. He's also got heavy hands in the right moments.
The difference for him will be whether he can do things with more consistency or not. That's what separates role players from starters (and starters from stars) at the NFL level. Everyone who makes it to the NFL is going to have some "flash" stats for the most part. They're all part of an incredibly exclusive group of athletes.
With Wharton, it'll have to be in the margins. He'll need to improve his hand usage and consistent power, and he'll also have to come up with a plan as a pass rusher. Right now he's winning with athleticism or his unexpected power to toss guys aside and then run at the QB. That's not enough to consistently win.
He's already a guy who can provide some value as a rotational player, but if he wants to be more he'll need to be more consistent.
Do you put any stock in Mike Remmers’ agent saying that the chiefs signed him as specifically the starting right tackle back when his new contract was announced?
I don't, no. He's going to get a chance to compete with Niang, but agents are just going to say what they say.
That said, I love having Remmers back at RT. At worst, they get a guy who they've seen can be an average (non-weakness) player at that spot. If Niang beats him out, it's not because they're desperate, it's because he earned it. You always want those sort of veterans on your team. He can provide some depth as well. Just not at left tackle, where he clearly isn't comfortable.
The Chiefs lost the Super Bowl because they didn’t have enough depth at offensive line. They have solidified the starting positions but do you think they have the quality backups to avoid a similar situation if injuries occur?
If that level of injuries occur? No.
No NFL team is ready to lose 4 starters (LDT, Osemele, Fisher, Schwartz) and come out "OK," it's just not the reality of the league right now. Most teams don't have 5 STARTERS they love, let alone depth they love.
You have to remember that a quality backup is still a guy that (generally) 32 teams decided wasn't good enough to be a starter. So you do that at multiple positions and what you have is a line full of guys who really shouldn't be consistently starting. You can do that with a couple of guys if you're lucky. But as many as KC had by the time the Super Bowl last year? No chance.
who are you breakout candidates for next year? both in KC and across the league
No idea across the league, but in Kansas City I'd keep an eye on Willie Gay Jr. (a pretty obvious one, but still). He's got a tremendous amount of talent and I think the team is excited to see what they can do with that talent.
do you see that happening this year off the injury? maybe by playoff time we could see some more well rounded form from him. but i’m no expert
It's supposed to be a 4 month recovery from his surgery, so he should be good to go.