Anytime the agent announces the "up to X million" amount, before the contract structure/guarantees are released, you can bet that the X is a fake number, and the real number is like X/3. I wouldn't be surprised if this deal turns out to be $3M guaranteed, with the other $6M falling under "unlikely to be earned" for cap purposes.
This honestly looks like the Chiefs planned on drafting a tackle and didn't get their man....this was the backup plan....not really excited about this....but 9 mil says he's not a backup.
I tend to agree with this. There was a real drop-off in tackles, as indicated by the fact that after Jacksonville took Anton Harrison at 27, there wasn't another tackle taken until we took Morris in the third round. I think they had their eyes on a couple of guys that they would be happy to take and probably even move up to take, but then weren't there.
Otherwise, why wait to sign Smith until after the draft? Because he was released by the Bucs, he wouldn't have qualified in the comp pick formula anyway. From the Chiefs perspective, they must have had thoughts the board would fall differently. Or it could be from Smith's perspective that there were other teams interested but maybe lost interest after finding guys in the draft.
It does look that way, but might not be. We don't know the details. A lot of the $9 million might fit under "unlikely to be earned," in which case, it wouldn't count against the cap. Juju picked up an extra $1 million for winning the Super Bowl.
I wouldn't be surprised if they were in Smith's ear the 1st day of free agency, and convinced him they were the best team that was going to make him that good of an offer, and the best system for landing him an Orlando Brown, Jr contract in 2024. They tailored that offense to fit Orlando, and they can tailor it to fit Smith, for 1/3 the price, and improve his PFF scores at the same time.
That said, it's not a sign that they think they have 3 stud RTs already on the roster.
FWIW: 2022 was an injury plagued season for him so I don't know how accurate any evaluations may be. But in 2021 PFF graded him as the 12th best OT in the league. I don't put a whole lot of stock in their grades for linemen but maybe that's a reason for optimism? Or at least a reason for hope that he's better than Brown?
Its not really 9M. Its 4M with incentives that could make it 9M.
3 things will likeky decide if he starts or not: 1) How good/bad do Niang & Morris look this summer at RT. 2) Is Taylor having difficulty playing LT. 3) Is Smith a decent LT (Like 2021) or is he on the decline.
Seth you may have addressed this in an earlier thread, I'm trying to send a gift sub and it's defaulting to $30. Will it correct as I go through the process or am I doing something wrong? Thanks.
I had the same issue and he told me to click on the Save 60% in the body of the article, and then you can select Gift if you know the person's email you are gifting to.
I think with the crew they have on the interior and the light boxes people use against KC, as well as the 12 and 13 personnel they'll favor, it shouldn't hurt too much.
Yeah. Once the guy's in the facility, it doesn't matter who got paid what. They look for the best 5. You just have to think that in light of KC saying he'll start, that Smith will start on the left side.
I'm up in the air. They did have their better tackle line up on the left side last year. Taylor probably has the best all-around game of the bunch, including Smith.
Thanks for this review. At least the Chiefs have some depth at tackle for this season with two seasoned vets in Smith and Taylor, Niang returning from injury, and a developmental prospect in Morris. I always say that every year is a scramble to build a complete roster, and 2023 has proven to be no exception.
I'm glad Veach embraces the scramble.
Of course, we won't really know how things will shake out until training camp, when the pads come on.
Considering the team had to address both tackle positions I think they are at least back to 4/5 of a great OL and with the fifth spot being no worse than last year. Depending on how camp and such play out they could be better if Niang, Morris, or Smith turn out to be better than OBJ or Wylie instead of replacement level. Taylor is improvement over one of them already. Scheming around one struggling or inconsistent OT is much easier than scheming around two like much of last year. Veach and Reid likely didn't fix the OL completely but I think they took a good step forward.
Totally agree. I feel like the weaknesses described here (holding/false start penalties and run blocking issues) will be less impactful for us than any other team, because Mahomes is unstoppable on 2nd/3rd and long, and because we run out of 12/13/14 personnel so much (which can spring the Tackle for 2nd-level run blocking, where Seth says this guy looks a little better). I'm cautiously optimistic.
They won't like a lot of penalties. But considering the level of support they gave Wylie and Brown, last year, it might not be an issue. You get penalties when you're being asked to play above your physical abilities.
I think Reid schemed the offense to be within Brown's abilities. They stopped asking him to do more than he was built for.
I think they'll trust Taylor 1-on-1 similar to how they trusted Schwartz 1-on-1. That's an upgrade. I'm just not sure what side they'll end up playing on. Not for certain.
Best case, you have to figure he's the backup LT. Seems like an insurance policy on a 1 year deal if A. Taylor really struggles playing LT and they want to shift him back to RT or B. if the young RTs are a mess and they need Taylor to play over there while Niang / Morris figure it out.
More of a 1-year stopgap than an insurance. I think he will start this year. Would be super-duper if somebody from down the ranks emerged, took over, and never looked back, and Smith turns out to be mere insurance.
I'd really be interested in a 30,000 foot view of how the Chiefs value receivers and offensive linemen. There was the huge debate a couple years ago about the Bengals selecting Chase or Sewell, and they went receiver, which has worked for them. The Chiefs have definitely gone OL, and it has also worked for them.
But now that the entire legion of zoom is gone, it feels like not just an entirely new group of receivers, but an entirely different philosophy of how to build out a receiving room. This is wild given how ridiculously successful the Chiefs offense was from 2018-2021.
I think with Moore and Toney both stepping their game up, assuming they are both healthy, we'll have a great WR core this year. That combo could be exactly what we need to compliment MVS (who is what he was last year and probably not much more) and Kelce.
Nate Taylor has shared a quote from an unnamed NFL exec a couple times since the end of the season. To paraphrase, the exec thinks the Chiefs believe who is in their receiver room doesn't matter much of they can protect Mahomes. The exec continued that he felt the Chiefs may be right.
If Mahomes has time to find the open receiver, it sure looks like he will do that almost all of the time. With varied receivers who individually can win in certain ways (and lose in others), giving PM time makes sense to me.
I completely agree. It's a fascinating thing to see happen in real time, although they're definitely still pouring resources into the WR room (2nd round picks back to back years, the MVS and Juju contracts, and the Toney trade). But it seems like they may be prioritizing the OL room over receivers.
Chase is an unusual talent. Choosing WR over OL is maybe not always the best choice but he's just different. Smart of the Bengals, too bad for the Chiefs.
I think Rashee Rice is going to be our "poor man's Chase", because he has that high-point leaping ability, and that "I want it more than you" contested catch ability.
I don't know what plan A for tackle this off-season was, but this surely can't have been it. I guess plan B was have a lot of options and see which ones stick (to the wall)?
Good that Veach seems to be prioritizing draft picks lately, cause we sorta didn't have much young depth up and coming at several positions, tackle being one of them.
Smiths Bes PFF LT rating was 14th in 2021 (his best ever) and then dropped ro 66th last year.
Orlando Brown's Best was last year ,ranking 19th Best at the LT position, in 2021 he was rated 28th best.
Hopefully we can turn him into another Willie Roaf who also joined us in his 9th year. Totally different type of Chiefs team then (2002-2005) but Roaf was a beast who New Orleans thought had seen his better years when they traded him to us.
Interesting move. Definitely seems like this was the back up plan if they couldn’t get their guy in the draft. Seems like a pretty solid plan B to have a lot of decent to good options and figure out which one will be best.
I think they got the EDGE they wanted. I'm not sure they weren't talking to Smith much earlier than the announcement. If they'd signed him before the draft, maybe there's a run on EDGE, with the teams ahead of us knowing we're not taking an OT.
Ugh. In Veach we trust but if he was signed as anything other than a veteran backup I'm just so confused. Again, I have no reason to doubt Veach, but this just seems odd to me. I'd be way more excited to use that money on bring back Clark and/or Dunlap
I agree with you. If he's a backup, that's good (and an improvement over existing backup). If he's a starter, either Heck -and health- will have worked miracles or something went very wrong.
I hadn't connected the dots on the $ going here instead of a vet for the edge/D line. I would definitely have preferred to spend there. Maybe the team can shake some cap room free during mid-camp about when a vet will want to come in.
Yeah, we really didn't have a backup LT prior to this. We usually do keep a veteran OT so that's all I had figured this was when it was announced but the comments by Verderame and Taylor that he is expected to start truly puzzle me. Arrowhead Pride had the Chiefs available cap at 4.5mil prior to the draft. We are running out of space to do any vet deals on the DL. Maybe they're confident on a Jones extension and freeing up some space?
This is an EXCELLENT signing.... if he's a backup.
If, as you mentioned, he's potentially one of the starters.... ehhh not as exciting. The good news, I guess, would be that it's an OBJ replacement for less than half what we'd be paying OBJ so that's worth it on it's own.
It very well maybe that the Chiefs could not draft the LT they wanted, but having a vet in camp in whatever role makes sense. A one year contract at "$9 million" shouts temporary.
I've done next to no research on run blocking for LTs, because I've been so convinced that the #1 job of a KC LT is to protect Mahomes. So it is interesting to hear your opinion from the film about Smith's run blocking.
As far as pass protection goes, I'm with you that he's not going to be worse than OBJ last year. Smith was 15th in snaps per pressure allowed (20.1) compared to Brown at 28th (15.4). Similarly to Brown, the biggest issue for Smith last year was his salary: he counted $18.4m against the cap, making him the second worst value in the league behind OBJ when comparing cap hit to the pressures allowed statistic.
So I'm also with you that the ideal would be that the switch goes smoothly and Taylor is a real upgrade at LT. But I'm good with Smith as a backup plan if it doesn't work out, because I don't think the Chiefs have another great LT option on the roster right now.
Great...another Brown that doesn't run block as well.....9 mil?...... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
IDK how seriously I'd take that 9 million dollar number.
It all depends on the contract structure.....as always
Anytime the agent announces the "up to X million" amount, before the contract structure/guarantees are released, you can bet that the X is a fake number, and the real number is like X/3. I wouldn't be surprised if this deal turns out to be $3M guaranteed, with the other $6M falling under "unlikely to be earned" for cap purposes.
Nailed the X/3! Hahaha
Even if $9M were a real number (and I have to assume it's not) it's way less than what Brown was making.
But it's more than a backup gets.....just have wait and see the contract details
Is it? Allegretti got $3M I think. Smith's could easily be that sort of base + incentives if he does end up starting.
Maybe you're ASCII a little much. 😸
Groan
This honestly looks like the Chiefs planned on drafting a tackle and didn't get their man....this was the backup plan....not really excited about this....but 9 mil says he's not a backup.
I tend to agree with this. There was a real drop-off in tackles, as indicated by the fact that after Jacksonville took Anton Harrison at 27, there wasn't another tackle taken until we took Morris in the third round. I think they had their eyes on a couple of guys that they would be happy to take and probably even move up to take, but then weren't there.
Otherwise, why wait to sign Smith until after the draft? Because he was released by the Bucs, he wouldn't have qualified in the comp pick formula anyway. From the Chiefs perspective, they must have had thoughts the board would fall differently. Or it could be from Smith's perspective that there were other teams interested but maybe lost interest after finding guys in the draft.
The reports are they view him as a starter, so we'll see to be sure.
I think that definitely could have been how it went down.
It does look that way, but might not be. We don't know the details. A lot of the $9 million might fit under "unlikely to be earned," in which case, it wouldn't count against the cap. Juju picked up an extra $1 million for winning the Super Bowl.
I wouldn't be surprised if they were in Smith's ear the 1st day of free agency, and convinced him they were the best team that was going to make him that good of an offer, and the best system for landing him an Orlando Brown, Jr contract in 2024. They tailored that offense to fit Orlando, and they can tailor it to fit Smith, for 1/3 the price, and improve his PFF scores at the same time.
That said, it's not a sign that they think they have 3 stud RTs already on the roster.
FWIW: 2022 was an injury plagued season for him so I don't know how accurate any evaluations may be. But in 2021 PFF graded him as the 12th best OT in the league. I don't put a whole lot of stock in their grades for linemen but maybe that's a reason for optimism? Or at least a reason for hope that he's better than Brown?
Its not really 9M. Its 4M with incentives that could make it 9M.
3 things will likeky decide if he starts or not: 1) How good/bad do Niang & Morris look this summer at RT. 2) Is Taylor having difficulty playing LT. 3) Is Smith a decent LT (Like 2021) or is he on the decline.
Seth you may have addressed this in an earlier thread, I'm trying to send a gift sub and it's defaulting to $30. Will it correct as I go through the process or am I doing something wrong? Thanks.
I had the same issue and he told me to click on the Save 60% in the body of the article, and then you can select Gift if you know the person's email you are gifting to.
You've got to use the same link that you would use for the coupon if you were subscribing yourself (like Terry said). Here you go!
https://mnchiefsfan.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=b01ae992&gift=true
That link worked. Clicking the Save 60% button was not working, not sure why. Maybe my clicking technique needs a film review. Thank you guys.
Dangit, I'm so sorry. I was hoping they'd fixed it to where that worked better now!
I've updated the post to remove the reference to gifting for cheaper. Again, I'm so sorry!
Good chance it's my technique... Thanks for your help, I'm looking forward to hearing from him when he starts reading the Substack.
Go ahead and give him the $30. Isn’t he worth it? 👍
Seth is, not so sure about my buddy.
Seth the IT support guy. What can’t you do, sir? 🧰
Just when the running game looked alive, we bring in this guy!
I think with the crew they have on the interior and the light boxes people use against KC, as well as the 12 and 13 personnel they'll favor, it shouldn't hurt too much.
They didn't ask for miracles from Brown or Wylie in the run game, PFF grades notwithstanding.
He would be great backup for both Taylor and Thuney on the left side if Taylor secures the LT spot.
Yeah. Once the guy's in the facility, it doesn't matter who got paid what. They look for the best 5. You just have to think that in light of KC saying he'll start, that Smith will start on the left side.
I'm up in the air. They did have their better tackle line up on the left side last year. Taylor probably has the best all-around game of the bunch, including Smith.
Thanks for this review. At least the Chiefs have some depth at tackle for this season with two seasoned vets in Smith and Taylor, Niang returning from injury, and a developmental prospect in Morris. I always say that every year is a scramble to build a complete roster, and 2023 has proven to be no exception.
I'm glad Veach embraces the scramble.
Of course, we won't really know how things will shake out until training camp, when the pads come on.
Agree. I like the depth. I still shudder thinking about the SB in Tampa after virtually the whole starting line was injured.
Wylie @ LT wasn't pretty. 2- and 3-TE became a lot more common after that.
Considering the team had to address both tackle positions I think they are at least back to 4/5 of a great OL and with the fifth spot being no worse than last year. Depending on how camp and such play out they could be better if Niang, Morris, or Smith turn out to be better than OBJ or Wylie instead of replacement level. Taylor is improvement over one of them already. Scheming around one struggling or inconsistent OT is much easier than scheming around two like much of last year. Veach and Reid likely didn't fix the OL completely but I think they took a good step forward.
Totally agree. I feel like the weaknesses described here (holding/false start penalties and run blocking issues) will be less impactful for us than any other team, because Mahomes is unstoppable on 2nd/3rd and long, and because we run out of 12/13/14 personnel so much (which can spring the Tackle for 2nd-level run blocking, where Seth says this guy looks a little better). I'm cautiously optimistic.
They won't like a lot of penalties. But considering the level of support they gave Wylie and Brown, last year, it might not be an issue. You get penalties when you're being asked to play above your physical abilities.
I think Reid schemed the offense to be within Brown's abilities. They stopped asking him to do more than he was built for.
I think they'll trust Taylor 1-on-1 similar to how they trusted Schwartz 1-on-1. That's an upgrade. I'm just not sure what side they'll end up playing on. Not for certain.
Best case, you have to figure he's the backup LT. Seems like an insurance policy on a 1 year deal if A. Taylor really struggles playing LT and they want to shift him back to RT or B. if the young RTs are a mess and they need Taylor to play over there while Niang / Morris figure it out.
More of a 1-year stopgap than an insurance. I think he will start this year. Would be super-duper if somebody from down the ranks emerged, took over, and never looked back, and Smith turns out to be mere insurance.
I'd really be interested in a 30,000 foot view of how the Chiefs value receivers and offensive linemen. There was the huge debate a couple years ago about the Bengals selecting Chase or Sewell, and they went receiver, which has worked for them. The Chiefs have definitely gone OL, and it has also worked for them.
But now that the entire legion of zoom is gone, it feels like not just an entirely new group of receivers, but an entirely different philosophy of how to build out a receiving room. This is wild given how ridiculously successful the Chiefs offense was from 2018-2021.
I think with Moore and Toney both stepping their game up, assuming they are both healthy, we'll have a great WR core this year. That combo could be exactly what we need to compliment MVS (who is what he was last year and probably not much more) and Kelce.
Nate Taylor has shared a quote from an unnamed NFL exec a couple times since the end of the season. To paraphrase, the exec thinks the Chiefs believe who is in their receiver room doesn't matter much of they can protect Mahomes. The exec continued that he felt the Chiefs may be right.
If Mahomes has time to find the open receiver, it sure looks like he will do that almost all of the time. With varied receivers who individually can win in certain ways (and lose in others), giving PM time makes sense to me.
If they don't matter....why the heck didn't they call me?....I'd be alot cheaper....😆😅🤣😂
Geezers need not apply!
Hey!!!....WTF......GEEZER? 😆😅🤣
Weirdly, almost that exact same idea was expressed on Twitter, by one of The Athletic NFL podcast hosts (I think it was Robert Mays).
Edit: found it -https://twitter.com/robertmays/status/1653923394214064130?cxt=HHwWhMCz3Y2k9fMtAAAA
I completely agree. It's a fascinating thing to see happen in real time, although they're definitely still pouring resources into the WR room (2nd round picks back to back years, the MVS and Juju contracts, and the Toney trade). But it seems like they may be prioritizing the OL room over receivers.
Makes sense to keep your 500 million dollar QB upright
Jerry Rice could be downfield but Patrick can’t find him laying on the ground!
I seem to recall a couple of completed passes to receivers on the ground from Pat...😁
Sorry…my sentence was unclear. I meant if Patrick was on the ground (post-sack)!
Chase is an unusual talent. Choosing WR over OL is maybe not always the best choice but he's just different. Smart of the Bengals, too bad for the Chiefs.
I think Rashee Rice is going to be our "poor man's Chase", because he has that high-point leaping ability, and that "I want it more than you" contested catch ability.
I don't know what plan A for tackle this off-season was, but this surely can't have been it. I guess plan B was have a lot of options and see which ones stick (to the wall)?
Good that Veach seems to be prioritizing draft picks lately, cause we sorta didn't have much young depth up and coming at several positions, tackle being one of them.
Smiths Bes PFF LT rating was 14th in 2021 (his best ever) and then dropped ro 66th last year.
Orlando Brown's Best was last year ,ranking 19th Best at the LT position, in 2021 he was rated 28th best.
Hopefully we can turn him into another Willie Roaf who also joined us in his 9th year. Totally different type of Chiefs team then (2002-2005) but Roaf was a beast who New Orleans thought had seen his better years when they traded him to us.
Interesting move. Definitely seems like this was the back up plan if they couldn’t get their guy in the draft. Seems like a pretty solid plan B to have a lot of decent to good options and figure out which one will be best.
I think they got the EDGE they wanted. I'm not sure they weren't talking to Smith much earlier than the announcement. If they'd signed him before the draft, maybe there's a run on EDGE, with the teams ahead of us knowing we're not taking an OT.
That’s a fair point.
Ugh. In Veach we trust but if he was signed as anything other than a veteran backup I'm just so confused. Again, I have no reason to doubt Veach, but this just seems odd to me. I'd be way more excited to use that money on bring back Clark and/or Dunlap
I agree with you. If he's a backup, that's good (and an improvement over existing backup). If he's a starter, either Heck -and health- will have worked miracles or something went very wrong.
I hadn't connected the dots on the $ going here instead of a vet for the edge/D line. I would definitely have preferred to spend there. Maybe the team can shake some cap room free during mid-camp about when a vet will want to come in.
Yeah, we really didn't have a backup LT prior to this. We usually do keep a veteran OT so that's all I had figured this was when it was announced but the comments by Verderame and Taylor that he is expected to start truly puzzle me. Arrowhead Pride had the Chiefs available cap at 4.5mil prior to the draft. We are running out of space to do any vet deals on the DL. Maybe they're confident on a Jones extension and freeing up some space?
This is an EXCELLENT signing.... if he's a backup.
If, as you mentioned, he's potentially one of the starters.... ehhh not as exciting. The good news, I guess, would be that it's an OBJ replacement for less than half what we'd be paying OBJ so that's worth it on it's own.
It very well maybe that the Chiefs could not draft the LT they wanted, but having a vet in camp in whatever role makes sense. A one year contract at "$9 million" shouts temporary.
I think the plan is to let him walk next year if Taylor and Morris progress as planned.
I've done next to no research on run blocking for LTs, because I've been so convinced that the #1 job of a KC LT is to protect Mahomes. So it is interesting to hear your opinion from the film about Smith's run blocking.
As far as pass protection goes, I'm with you that he's not going to be worse than OBJ last year. Smith was 15th in snaps per pressure allowed (20.1) compared to Brown at 28th (15.4). Similarly to Brown, the biggest issue for Smith last year was his salary: he counted $18.4m against the cap, making him the second worst value in the league behind OBJ when comparing cap hit to the pressures allowed statistic.
So I'm also with you that the ideal would be that the switch goes smoothly and Taylor is a real upgrade at LT. But I'm good with Smith as a backup plan if it doesn't work out, because I don't think the Chiefs have another great LT option on the roster right now.