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RemovedFeb 13·edited Feb 13
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I've removed this comment and the replies (just to purge everything completely, not as a commentary on anything else but the initial comment).

I'll send you an email. For everyone else, I've striven to make this comment section different from all others on the 'net, and that means keeping it from getting contentious. I understand not everyone may agree, but I think there's enough places for people to "go at" one another.

Be critical? Sure. Have strong opinions. Go nuts! But respect each other, me, and the people (and these are human beings) we're talking about.

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FWIW, I do appreciate a number of you giving he whole "we don't do that here" talk for me lol.

Again, have strong opinions! Disagree! Argue for days! I'll probably join in hahaha. All that is healthy. But name calling or being disrespectful will get comments kicked out. And that includes how everyone treats A Kauffman, because hey, he didn't know how we roll here, and that's not on him! We're all Chiefs fans and will be back to holding hands and celebrating in no time.

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Feb 14·edited Feb 14

Yep - no hard feelings, Kauffman - love your namesake, Andy, by the way!

Hope you can see the culture we're going for is more analytical and less ad hominem, and that's not aimed at you or anyone else personally.

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I second this by a million, and again, want to emphasize the disagreement/debate/criticism is all welcome here! Heck, I've had people criticize me in the comments, and that's OK!

Just keep it clean during it all! :)

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Thanks Seth. Really appreciate your humanity.

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I just want the internet to not be as bad as it usually is haha.

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If he goes elsewhere I genuinely hope that, by quirk of scheduling or whatever, we never have to play against him.

I would love to see him back, but he needs to fit and and I'm not sure that's possible, even being another year older.

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Yep, that extra year is tough. I can see them offering something like 2 years, 55 mil (to try and match that 27ish they got to last year), but would be surprised beyond that.

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The impact of that last play by Jones is even greater when you realize Sneed slipped and fell covering Aiyuk out of his break and Aiyuk is streaking across the end zone WIDE OPEN. If Jones wasn't in Purdy's lap immediately, the Niners score a TD on that play.

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Absolutely, that's a TD without the pressure.

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Straddling the fence only ends up one way. CHRIS JONES will be back, They already agreed in principle on an outline of a contract. Just kick back and watch. Sneed is the one that should hold concern.

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My hope is a long-term extension for Jones and at least a franchise tag for Sneed. Ideally, I'd love to get Sneed on a deal for the three years left of McDuffie's rookie deal including the fifth year option. We have a clean cap for next year with almost no dead money, and at least a couple of restructure candidates if we want to be more aggressive.

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Yes. If we tag Sneed, it really limits what we can do with Tranquil, Dana, and a free agent wide receiver. I like what you wrote though.!! I would like to keep Willy Gay, but with Chenal playing the way he is and Tranquil...

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Yes. Best case scenario is three-year deals for Jones and Sneed with enough wiggle room to address offensive tackle and wide receiver. It is a good draft class for both (from what I read anyway) but we don't have a ton of draft capital. And we keep getting the last pick of each round - BWAH HA HA HA HA!!!

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One thing to keep in mind with the cap is that they're pretty much certain to cut MVS, which creates about 12 mil in space, and they do have a lot of room to restructure Pat. So there's room to play with. I'd be surprised if they kept Gay, and from what I know he knows that too.

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True, Gay is leaving. That's to bad because he played spy very well when he was healthy. They are going to redo Patrick's contract. They want to keep Tranquil if the price is good. I have a friend who has relation in Arrowhead. So, if he isn't feeding me B.S. then maybe it's true. And maybe it's not.. I just don't see Veach and Reid showing their cards..So...

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It's always tough to know for sure, because it relies so much on the other side of a negotiation!

I don't mind saying (and I'll be writing about it in my "if I were Brett Veach" pieces that will start in a few weeks), if the Chiefs just accepted that Bolton is not a 15 mil per year extension guy they can find the money for both Jones and Sneed.

I definitely think they'll restructure Mahomes' deal again to reload.

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I'm so nervous about Jones and Snead wanting the proverbial bank to back up to their door and open for business. You are so right, what does the other side need to feel respected. Oh man, Bolton, how do these people not lose their mind negotiating with the players.?? I know I can't wait until your next "if I were Brett Veach" piece hits my doorway. You are awesome Seth.!!

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I have wondered whether Bolton's play justifies a large extension and tend to think that his weakness in coverage counts against him. BTW, I'd love to hear your thoughts on how losing Borgonzi will impact the team.

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Hey, I'd love it!

My understanding is that Spags absolutely LOVES Sneed for what that's worth. And he's cheaper than Jones would be. Having 2 CB's like him and McDuffie is something you can build a defense around.

My hope is they figure out a way to keep both, as tricky as it may be.

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Come on Seth, we just won the Super Bowl and the beginning and end of the article have me 🥺. I am pro player and if CJ wants to get his bag, especially in a brutal sport like football, go get it. I'm praying it's in KC but he deserves to be paid, and you never know what can happen as a player. Just ask Dre Greenlaw. That being said, I appreciate and will always cherish the time Chris Jones spent in KC.

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if you're injured you still collect unless you're incentive-loaded.

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A player only gets his guaranteed money.

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It depends on whether it's injury-guaranteed or not, which I get from the team's side but definitely colors how players approach it!

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hahaha I'm sorry, I couldn't write about the SB without starting with him given the situation!

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It's about time you gave some props to Chris in one of your articles, Seth. 😉

I have hope for this round of negotiations for a couple of reasons. Veach never allowed the talks to become contentious, and Chris attended the season opener, albeit surrounded by his agents, Hans und Franz. Secondly, he was offered a realistic, but difficult, means to recoup lost salary. I think it demonstrates a lot of good will. And besides, Chris already said he's going to retire as a Chief.

Looking forward to all the feel-good articles you'll be creating in the coming weeks celebrating our #Back2Back champions.

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Haha I figured I would finally write about him lol.

Sneed and McDuffie are next! And I hope you're right about both sides having goodwill.

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Thanks Seth. No matter what happens, CJ95 is a Chiefs legend and in the inner ring of the Ring of Honor.

I thought Mike Pennel really played well too. Had PM2 not been so great at the end, for most of the game I thought CJ95 and Pennel were co-MVPs

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Arguably the biggest change in the adjustment to Mahomes's contract is the change in when his Roster Bonus is paid. It used to be right after the beginning of the new NFL season - early March. Now it is May 5th. The difference is that the Chiefs have more time before they declare if they are going to convert Roster Bonus to Signing Bonus. Last year they converted $10 million and because Chris Jones was tagged and did not sign a long term contract, it wasn't enough to give them cap space to sign someone like DeAndre Hopkins. Teams can only adjust a player's Roster Bonus to Signing Bonus once per year. Now, the new contract allows the Chiefs to wait until 5/5/2024 to decide how much to convert - after the NFL Draft and the early rush of free agency. This gives Veach more flexibility in case he decides to franchise tag Chris Jones. Mahomes's Roster Bonus this year is $34.9 million.

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Great info and insight, thank you.

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Feb 13·edited Feb 13

The problem is, converting that entire sum to signing bonus only saves ~$28M against the cap - which would bring our total cap space up to $51M. We have to find money for CJ, Sneed, a replacement for Omenihu (who is probably out for the season, or at least most of it), Willie Gay/Drue Tranquil/Mike Danna/Turk Wharton/Tommy Townsend (or replacements), and a WR to boot. It's really hard to see how we make all that fit, unless we sign CJ to a long term deal that is back loaded (and possibly with void years), or trade him/let him walk.

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Can they re-work Mahomes' contract similar to what the Dodgers did with Ohtani? I don't pretend to understand how the cap works but I did hear somewhere that Patrick was wanting to redo his deal to make it more friendly to the team so they can get him more help. I also heard on a podcast today that he makes something around $45 million in endorsements annually so it's not about needing more $$ for him, it's about perceived respect. If Veach can walk the tightrope between a lower cap hit on the QB in exchange for more weapons for the QB, then things might get really scary for the rest of the NFL.

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The closest equivalent to the Ohtani deal in the NFL is adding Void Years at the end of the deal, but that's used to spread out signing bonus at the end of a deal (e.g. if we signed CJ to a 1 year, $36M deal with a $20M signing bonus, we could put 4 void years on the end of the deal, and spread the signing bonus cap hit over the 2025-28 seasons, to limit his 2024 cap hit to $20M and basically borrow $4M from the 2025-2028 cap pools).

But we can't agree to pay Mahomes a bunch of money after he retires and get cap benefit from that, as far as I know. I wish we could, because I would gladly suck for the next 5 years after Mahomes retires if it allowed us to keep Sneed, Jones, et al.

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founding

So akin to “suck for Luck”, “crap for cap”?

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At the tail end of the Mahomes dynasty, if Mahomes is stuck on 7 rings. and Veach doesn't throw caution to the wind and go full-Saints-mode and jdrag the next 5 years worth of cap money into the present day to win ring #8, I'll be very disappointed in him.

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You can't do that in the NFL. Heck, I don't think the Dodgers should have been allowed to do it in Baseball to circumvent the luxury tax either.

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You can't do that unless you're the Donkeys... There should be an * by the '97 & '98 Super Bowls because they did exactly this to cheat and ensure they could keep as many of their top players as possible. (Still infuriates me how much they've cheated and had so little consequences - in this case a total of ~ $2M in fines and (2) 3rd round draft picks. Small price to pay to give horse face validation w finally winning 2 SB's - even though he was washed and sucked - but more importantly, helping the team get a new stadium)

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A sound point on Omenihu, we don't know what the TL may look like there. And even if he's back, whether he'll be good to go.

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Given how late in the year his injury occurred, I can't imagine Omenihu playing at all next year. Which takes us to 2025 and his contract expires after '24, right? A shame.

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Usually takes a full year for an ACL tear, yes. So that's a real bummer.

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You're, right of course. There won't be enough cap space to sign all of those players. The ideal for Chiefs management is for Chris Jones to sign a long-term contract that would give him a lowish cap hit this coming season. MVS will likely get cut for a $12 million cap savings. I'm guessing Willie Gay and Mike Danna have earned enough of a payday that the Chiefs won't be able to afford them. I really hope we can sign Tranquil for a 3-year deal to keep him - but, things happen... It will be an interesting offseason to say the least. They actually had a good free agent class last year even with CJ's complications (and I'm not faulting CJ for holding out - in general, players deserve to get paid so I don't blame him for applying whatever leverage he could). And, of course, even without the room to sign a veteran WR, the Chiefs, umm, won the Super Bowl. Buckle up, here comes a new season.

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That's really interesting stuff, thanks! I remember hearing about them changing the date of the roster bonus. Definitely handy to have it a bit longer.

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Early in the season I was ready to sacrifice almost anyone that could be cut other than PM/Kelce for the salary savings to get a WR1. After seeing how the defense came together, I am ready to ride it out with Rashee and a round 1 or 2 rookie to keep CJ/Sneed and as much of the D together as possible. This year's defense was just incredible, and the development of Rice was much faster than I expected.

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founding

If it would pan out, great solution. But we have seen how poorly Skyy has developed. Driving a well tuned offense is probably mandatory for Patrick’s job satisfaction. However Brett acquires WRs, they have to produce. 🤞

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Feb 13·edited Feb 13

Mike Pennel is better than Nnadi. I don't understand the depth chart, but I'm thankful Pennel was active and Nnadi wasn't for this game in particular. And Chris Jones... man. Fun to watch if he's on your team.

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founding

Ditto Pennel. 👍

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Feb 13·edited Feb 13

Mike Pennel was better than Nnadi for 1 game. But he's ~33. He wouldn't hold up over 20 games, most likely. Nnadi didn't either, but the odds were a lot better for him at age ~28 than Pennel.

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Good point. I guess I'm just tired of watching Nnadi play linebacker when he's supposed to be anchoring the line. And this wasn't even about Nnadi, mostly about how strong Pennel played on Sunday. Dude was a rock.

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Love Big Mike. It definitely (as BIJ mentioned) helped him that it was a limited time!

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Pennel has been with the team off and on for so long the coaches know him well. He had a great game. Guessing he will stay as a rotational player next year.

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Pennel putting Trent Williams on his back and then making the tackle is an all-timer. I bet I've watched / re-watched that play 20 X already. Just incredible. HOW was that dude a street FA...

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Thanks for shining the light on this legend, Seth. In spite of the segment of the fan base that somehow still holds a grudge against him for wanting to be compensated at a level commensurate with his skills, CJ is the MVP of the 2023/24 Chiefs. Take him off the team and there are at least 4 games that could have easily flipped from wins to losses. (Admittedly, if we're playing hypotheticals, I assume Mahomes would find a way, but that's because he's an alien wizard.)

Surely Chris is a Hall of Fame lock now, right? His resume boasts 3 Super Bowl rings, 5x All-Pro (2x First Team), and a 5x Pro Bowl selection. He's almost a lock to get to 100 career sacks if he plays just 4 more seasons (though he could conceivably get there in 2). If he's not a first ballot Hall of Fame choice there's a serious flaw in the process.

He'll always be one of my favorite Chiefs. Hopefully they find a way to keep him but I don't expect it to happen. Veach's job is to build a sustainable dynasty, not just squeeze out 1 or 2 more runs, and the salary cap is an unforgiving challenge.

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Best player on the defense of a dynasty: if he retired tomorrow, he's a lock.

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I think the multiple Super Bowls propels him there. It's so tough for DT's because sack numbers are generally lower, but being part of one of the most successful dynasties in history (MAN I love saying that) is a big deal. He deserves it.

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founding
Feb 13·edited Feb 14

Thanks, Seth. I was already grieving the probable loss of Chris. Am now truly despondent! 😩.

Couple this with losing Sneed, Gay and Tranquill and this remarkable defense may have been a one hit wonder. But Brett is skilled at his role and we have to shore up WR and OT. What a juggling act he has to execute. 😬🤦‍♂️

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hahaha I'm always here to make you feel, um, worse.

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Maybe pivot back to explosive offence next year.

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founding

That’s my guess.

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At this point, I have no beef with Chris Jones if he decides to walk because he thinks he can get another $5-10M from another team. Do I think it's short-sighted of him if he does? Yes. Absolutely. The value of being part of the foundation of the NFL's first 3-peat is far greater than $10M, and would elevate him from a great player to an absolute legend of the game. And if I were him, I would take that risk and go for the legendary status. But if he leaves, I will wish him well, just like we wished Tyreek well. I just hope that Veach says, "Look, Chris, we love you. If there was no cap, we'd give you the money you're asking for. But since there is a cap, here's our final offer - we're making this offer right now, so you can decide what you want to do. If you don't feel this offer is fair or sufficient, we'll give you permission to go negotiate with other teams, like we did for Tyreek, and we'll work out the compensation with the team of your choice, because you've earned that. Just let us know your decision by the end of the week, and if the answer is no, find your preferred sign and trade team before the end of the month, and we'll make it happen, and send you off with our gratitude at the ring ceremony."

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founding

Yes, but…

That team of choice could just say, why should we give trade compensation for you? You will be a free agent in March; the Chiefs don’t dare tag you as that amount instantly hits their cap and destroys their FA game plan.

Lot of brinksmanship could be in play including a bidding war for Chris by other teams. Who blinks first?

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Feb 14·edited Feb 14

For the same reason the Dolphins gave the Chiefs draft compensation for Tyreek - because he's worth it, and they don't want to give other teams a chance to enter the bidding and blow them out of the water. As discussed elsewhere, the Chiefs could easily free up $28M by converting Mahomes' roster bonus into a signing bonus, and that would get us up to $51M - more than enough to sign CJ. If you're a team that is 100% sure that CJ at, say, $32M/year is the missing piece that puts your 2024 defense over the top and makes you a Super Bowl contender, are you really going to balk at throwing in some draft picks because you're 100% certain the Chiefs will let him walk instead of giving him the non-exclusive tag treatment (which raises his price to 2 1st rounders)?

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founding
Feb 13Liked by Seth Keysor

Seth, thank you for this! I've read everything about the SB on the internet that's not behind a paywall and I WANT MOOAAARRR!

I was starting to get twitchy this afternoon. Can you write something to make sense of why both the Ravens AND the Niners apparently abandoned their strength (running, against the Chiefs' relatively weak run D)? Much like 2 weeks ago I watched in fear of the, Niners just pounding the rock in the 2nd half. But they just didn't? I'm glad, but I'm curious. Does Spags have some sort of hypnotic power over opposing OCs?

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I plan on writing about that! It was in part due to Spags' alignments, and in part because Big Mike Pennel, Tershawn Wharton, and Leo Chenal went bananas.

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I was thinking about the defensive accomplishment in the postseason run. The teams we played averaged 28.25 points per game in the regular season. (Also 29.75 in their other playoff games) The Chiefs held them to 15.75 per game,( 15 flat in regulation) or 55.8% of what they scored per game in the regular season.

This is really an incredible feat.

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Brian Baldinger does a great job of breaking this down on his twitter. It was because KC's D-line started dominating the Niner's O line, stuffing runs for little gain or even losing yards. That breaks Shanahan's "script" causing them to try and play left handed so to speak. That's why they started trying to pass on 1st down which played right into our strength. Credit to Spags and the KC D. Here's a great example: https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1757061371617829359

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I was tearing up reading the last 5 paragraphs. This sucks but what a freaking ride. I'll stan 95 from now until forever.

Unless of course he signs, I'll do back-flips if that happens.

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Great writeup Seth. It is incredible how Jones routinely just blasts by two and sometimes three blockers. It's like they aren't even there. And very poetic that his last play (hopefully just of this season and not last play with the Chiefs) he was left completely unblocked. If this is the end, what a heck of a final play!

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Jones is so unique, and so much fun to watch. And yes, what a way to go out!

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