39 Comments

If Mahomes and MVS can start syncing up on deep balls better the offense is going insanely scary beyond what it already is. Feels like there were about half a dozen missed TDs over the season where they weren't connecting

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I so cannot wait to get on a plane monday so once I hit US airspace I can watch this game!

I am keeping Toneys hammy on my prayer list from now on.

I wonder if there's any kind of trade market for CEH. He's the only former starter we have I'd be willing to deal.

How did Mecole look?

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Mecole was inactive for the game. In keeping with their approach all season with injured players, the Chiefs have repeatedly erred on the side of caution. A successful approach considering that no one has been rushed back and re-injured as a result.

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Thanks for letting me know. Here's hoping he has a great postseason

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founding

In addition to Pacheco and Toney, add Hardman and Ronald Jones. Two fresh bodies to add to the mix cannot hurt.

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Jan 8, 2023·edited Jan 8, 2023

Excellent and penetrating analysis as usual, Seth. Thank you for this. But I can't resist pointing out that you may have omitted the biggest postseason X-factor of all....

If the Chiefs win their first playoff game, there's a good chance that the conference championship game will be played at a neutral site instead of at Arrowhead Stadium as it should be.

Nobody yet has offered, or even seriously attempted, a rational explanation as to why the Chiefs should be punished for the fact that Damar Hamlin nearly lost his life a few days ago. The Chiefs had nothing to do with it. Nor, for that matter, did any other team in the NFL. It was just an extraordinarily unlikely and freakish event for which no one is to blame, including the Bills and the Bengals.

There's a very real chance that the 9-8 Jaguars will be permitted to host as many home playoff games as the 14-3 conference champion Chiefs. In what universe is that the right way to handle this?

And further.... Is the NFL going to impose the same punishment on the NFC champions? They're fully as culpable in Hamlin's situation as the Chiefs are.

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Jan 8, 2023·edited Jan 8, 2023

We should probably save our energy and not get too mad about this until/unless the Bills to beat the Pats today and then advance to the AFC championship game. I put the odds of this 3-game parlay at about 25% (80% chance of winning today, 80% chance of beating the 7 seed, 40% chance of beating the Bengals). The Bills losing any of these three games make the league's decision a moot point. Josh Allen hasn't been playing that well since the Chiefs game, and I have to think the team's preparation and focus has suffered a lot this week. Let it play out. We'll probably be in Arrowhead for the Championship, so let's wait and see.

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founding

Well, in many ways I am warming up for a potential strong run this month (and beyond?). If Patrick, Isiah, Kadarius, Travis, Juju, MVS, Jerrick can function efficiently together…wow! And that’s not even counting in Skyy and Mecole. And then if the D line can keep pressuring as they did tonight led by DPOY Chris and Furious George…more wow!

We have a difficult row to hoe ahead, no doubt. And yes, we won’t be facing Raiders facsimiles going forward. But we can be as dangerous as any playing like this. I still have some concerns but I’ll save those for a future missive from Seth. For now, our “victory” in the Wild Card round will be savored! 🥳

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250 players were drafted before we picked Isaiah Pacheco and he might become the biggest steal of the draft since RB Jamal Anderson was picked in the 7th round also.

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Brock Purdy would like a word.

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Yeah, I should have put biggest RB steal. Even though undrafted Priest Holmes & Arian Foster could argue that. Either way, great 7th round pick

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Just wanted to comment that I love your analysis and look forward to every article you put out. Keep killing it, Seth!

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The beauty of the Chiefs' offense this season has been both the quantity and quality of X-factors on the roster. McKinnon has been outstanding and the ideal Reid chess piece. The overall quality of the receiver room is unquestionably better than a season ago. Regarding the TEs, Gray has taken a big step forward and now Bell is back, though unfortunately it doesn't appear that Fortson will be a contributor the rest of the way. Add Skyy and Hardman coming back, and Pat has a wealth of offensive weapons at his disposal.

The only team that can prevent a deep postseason run from the Chiefs are the Chiefs. If they play clean, turnover-free football, I like their chances to bring home another Lombardi by way of Phoenix.

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I remember the question when we traded for Toney was "why do we need him??" I followed along, shrugged my shoulders, said "dunno!" I guess the powers to be knew. Thank goodness they know more than the arm chair managers/coaches. I heard a point brought up during the broadcast. Pacheco was the next to last RB taken! That is straight up value right there. That last clip/run gave me goosebumps. It kinda, almost, reminded me of Hunt. He's just scratching the surface of his ability.

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Don't get me going about my man crush I have for McKinnon. My best friend was lucky and was given tickets to the game. (He moved to LV 10-12 years ago). I told him to enjoy Pat and Travis. But to keep his eyes on #1. He has an action hero super skill. He "magically" appears in an open area with the ball heading to him. What a great addition to the team. This year he has been the super secret cheat code.

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As a primarily substack app user, I really appreciated having embedded .gifs in the article instead of tweets that bump me over to twitter when I play them. I don't know if that's a time-saver or if it's harder but I like being able to read the analysis, watch the play and flip back and forth like that. Great work!

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Seth has commented before that he is limited to how many GIF’s he can put in an article for some reason, which is why he uses some tweets also.

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Strongly agree. Thanks for embedding the gifs and not shooting us over to twitter. Great content and great user experience!

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I second this.

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Great job Seth ! Still need to use 13 personnel even more ! Mecole and Toney ! Red zone twins !

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Jan 8, 2023·edited Jan 8, 2023

I see a Mecole jet sweep left, throwback to Toney to reverse field for a TD in our playoff future.

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One thing I love about Pacheco is how quick he gets up after a tackle. Defenders like to crow over big hits or stopping a play, and Pacheco is up off the ground and moving before the defenders get to flex. I love it. It's an absolute "Sure, you got me down that time. Now let's go again," move.

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Yeah, and he's got that Barry Sanders classy move of finding the ref and giving him the ball.

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Jan 8, 2023·edited Jan 8, 2023

Great article Seth! I think what makes both of these players special is one trait: the ability to drive *forward* while adjusting their angles of attack to make defenders lose their leverage. You see too many players using the skills that got them to the pros (ability to move laterally or backwards to adjust angles and alter leverage against defenders), not understanding that that is a losing strategy in the pros, because many/most players have elite lateral movement and quickness. Moving backwards and giving them more time and space to flatten their angles is a losing strategy, and it's almost as bad to move sideways, because even if you beat the first defender, the second converges on you rapidly.

The solution to this dilemma is to converge on the lead defender quickly, and only adjust the leverage when you are in/almost in his grasp. The guys who can do this well are able to wrench themselves out of the grasp of the defender, and leave the defenders' chests falling toward air, in the best case, and in the worst case, they align themselves to fall forward for two more yards.

The way they accomplish this is similar but different. Pacheco's unique stomping sprint shows that he is maximizing power on every step, so that it doesn't matter when/where the defender hits him - he is always accelerating in a side-to-side zig-zag, his center of gravity just a fraction away from where the defender expects it to be, allowing him to consistently drive through single-defender contact. so a well-designed run play that puts him one-on-one with a defender is very likely to succeed with at least 4-5 yards, and if that defender guesses wrong on which leg he'll be driving at the moment of contact, he slides of Pacheco, and the runner keeps advancing to the next defender, who finds himself on the horns of the same dilemma.

Kadarius is different, because he doesn't just go side-to-side every step. With Toney, it looks like every step, he might plant and drive *any direction*. He does this by bending deep into his knees, and applying force from entire kinetic chain, from the foot through the hip, which enables him to accelerate every imaginable direction, regardless of the direction of his momentum. And he does this *even in the grasp of defenders*. It's no wonder he gets hurt a lot, because it's hard to even imagine how much torque he's applying on his hamstrings to make this happen. It's truly remarkable.

I hope in the off-season he can have a conversation with Mahomes/Bobby Stroupe about how to train and prepare his flexibility up and down the kinetic chain to survive the grind of the season, while keeping that elite change of direction ability in his back pocket for the biggest moments. Just like I don't want to see Mahomes running through contact/taking hits on scrambles (except in the playoffs), I don't want to see Toney's human joystick routine during the regular season of 2023. He has other traits that are much more sustainable (e.g. route running using that skill without the added stress of contact, and using his leg strength to reverse course and high-point back shoulder throws). If Toney can make the adjustment Mahomes did when his ankle/knee became a problem, and save his strength for the biggest moments, hoo-boy! We got a good one!

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Jan 8, 2023·edited Jan 8, 2023

I know this isn't a Chris Jones article, but can we talk about how the fast developing Chris Jones vs Karlaftis/Danna complementary pass rush axis has us top 2 in team sacks in the NFL, pending tonight's games? Karlaftis and Danna have combined for 10.5 sacks in the past 8 games (largely playing off Jones' reliable pocket-crushing presence). Add in Jones's 8.5 sacks over that interval, and we're going to finish the season no worse than top 5, after starting the season in the bottom 10. Plus, we're doing it without selling out against the run. Truly an incredible development this year! Here's hoping Frank Clark's groin injury isn't too serious, so we can keep up this pass rush rotation through the playoffs.

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We finished 2nd in the NFL in sacks for the season - ahead of the Patriots and Cowboys. No one outside Kansas City is talking about this. Look for our D-Line to surprise some folks this postseason!

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founding

Love learning more about the players who aren't superstars but still very important to our success. Can't wait to read more about your X factor guys.

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