Bye Week Mailbag, Part 1
You have questions, I have (sort of) answers)
The Chiefs played a relatively meaningless game last week. They have a bye week (after going 14-2 despite sitting their starters in the final week of the season, something we shouldn’t take for granted) next in what should be an awesome slate of Wild Card games.
With that, it seems like a good week for a giant, 2-part mailbag. I’ll split this up, with Part 1 being available to everyone and Part 2 being for subscribers only. Please reply below with a mailbag question for Part 2 if you’d like!
Let’s mailbag.
This is a great question, and it goes towards a really interesting subplot for the Chiefs: For the first time in years, the cornerback position might not be one the fans are stressing about during the offseason.
Of the cornerbacks who are currently playing significant time for the Chiefs (Breeland, Ward, Fenton, and Sneed), all but Breeland are under the Chiefs’ control next season. Ward is a restricted free agent, which allows the Chiefs to keep him on a low one-year deal absent another team signing him and giving up a draft pick. Fenton is signed through 2022 on his rookie deal, and Sneed is signed through 2023.
Breeland is the wild card here. The Chiefs were able to retain him this year (after a solid 2019 season in which he helped stabilize the cornerback position) for the low price of $3 million, a bargain for a consistent veteran cornerback who is a great fit in Steve Spagnuolo’s system. His lack of a market last offseason was mystifying, though somewhat explained by his suspension to start the season.
It’s hard to believe the Chiefs will be that lucky again, though they just might. The 2021 cornerback free agent class isn’t a particularly strong one, and a player with Breeland’s consistency (no position is more volatile than cornerback) should be sought after. But in the cornerback market it’s often boom or bust, and with concerns about the salary cap there’s a chance the Chiefs could get Breeland back at another bargain price.
If they can’t do that, they won’t have much choice but to let him walk. Their commitments to Mahomes, Clark, Kelce, Jones, etc, along with the rapidly approaching contracts of Tyreek Hill and Tyrann Mathieu, are not going to allow them to spend on a good player where they have depth in all likelihood. The cap is incredibly flexible, but there are at times choices to be made.
If that happens, my guess is what we see next year is a group of Sneed, Ward, and Fenton as the 3 primary starters, with Baker getting a chance if he heals up well. Don’t rule out Keyes getting some looks as well, as he has the traits they look for in a cornerback and Veach has shown a knack for finding diamonds in the rough at the position.
The really crazy thing is that if Keyes gets the nod and Breeland is gone, the Chiefs will be paying their top 4 cornerbacks a combined 5-6 million dollars, and most of that will be tied up in Ward’s restricted free agent tender. The fact that they have found enough talented players to get away with that level of financial investment at the position is either sheer luck or a remarkable testament to the work Veach has done.
I’d expect them to draft a cornerback in the lower rounds as well, which normally would mean to expect nothing from him in 2021. But given what Ward, Sneed, and Fenton have done, one never knows.
All SORTS of stuff ends up recorded that never sees the light of day at the NFL level. The league is desperately protective of its image and anything that might remotely tarnish it, as well as the idea of keeping things as “in house” as possible with teams.
I couldn’t tell you whether it gets actively scrubbed or is sitting somewhere in an archive. My guess is the latter, as NFL films is always going back to scour for content. But every single second that ever gets beyond teams’ or the league’s control is going to be vetted. That’s why it was so crazy when Earl Thomas leaked practice footage. That stuff just doesn’t get out at the NFL level.
Two very different questions, so I’ll tackle the first one! I’d say the identity of this team as opposed to last year’s is shaped by last year’s Super Bowl win. The Chiefs are no longer the fun, upstart challenger to the NFL’s statuos quo. They now ARE the status quo.
In terms of offensive and defensive identity, the Chiefs are similar on offense to what they were last year on offense: They throw the ball, then throw the ball more, then after that they throw the ball. One difference this year (when they had a healthy CEH) was that they’ve shown a willingness to utilize “ground and pound” offense when opposing defenses open the door. Whether that’s true without him (and with Bell/Williams/Thompson) remains to be seen.
On defense, they’ve become more reliant on their coverage and cornerback unit and less so on the pass rush, though that may be by necessity. Chris Jones has been excellent getting after quarterbacks this year, but the rest of the pass rush group has not been as consistent. And so we’ve seen a shift in frequency of blitzing and stunts/twists to try and generate pressure, with mixed results depending on the opponent.
Ha! Since I’m talking about the Chiefs so much in this mailbag, let’s do personal!
Goal: To be kinder than I was last year and more intentional about it.
Fear: That I won’t find that balance between work and home life.
Hope: That this year carries as many blessings as last year, without some of the… um… hiccups.
At this point, without looking at them closely, matchup-wise a team that freaks me out is the Colts.
Don’t laugh!
Again, this is matchup based. The Chiefs have struggled to deal with good interior pass rushers, especially when paired with someone who can get it done off the edge. And Buckner is one of the best interior rushers in the NFL. He also has Justin Houston coming off the edge, and Houston has been very good in Indianapolis. He also may or may not be highly motivated to face the Chiefs.
The Bills are the best team in the AFC besides the Chiefs, but football is a game of matchups. And the Colts have a weird matchup for the Chiefs (if they can get past the Bills).
Coahes generally like familiar faces in a new environment, especially as they’re trying to install “their” system and create the type of culture they want.
The thing is, it’s almost impossible to know which players are a coaches “guy” until you actually see it happen. Bienemy might think that Kelce and Hill are the real center of the system and passes on Robinson and Watkins. That said, I believe it would be a smart move on his part to try to grab either or both, as they should be had at a relatively decent price and could help any team with depth for weapons.
Darwin Thompson finally got significant carries in a game after seeing his role drastically reduce (following ball security issues, which is something Andy Reid has always treated as a non-starter for running backs), and he demonstrated some of the traits that had people excited for him last season. He has good burst, excellent quickness, and seemed to pick his way through the blockers well.
It’s easy to see the difference between Thompson in terms of quickness/athleticism when compared to Williams, so it’s natural to want an expanded role for him in favor of Williams. That said, I’m not sure that takes into account the specific role Williams plays for the Chiefs. He’s trusted to not screw things up on obvious passing downs (which comes down mostly to blocking if necessary), and not really move the needle as a weapon.
What that means is that Thompson’s superior athleticism might not necessarily lead to playing “over” Williams. If Edwards-Helaire gets nicked up (since we’re talking about next year, I’m going to assume CEH gets the lion’s share of the snaps), the best guess is that it’s a split backfield, with Thompson doing what he does well on early downs and Williams handling 3rd down and short yardage situations. That makes them a bit more predictable, but until Thompson shows he can handle pass protection consistently (he looked better in Week 17 than he had previously) I don’t see him actually taking Williams’ role.
So this is a question based on how the Chiefs have performed by DVOA and other advanced metrics. Basically, if one goes by those metrics (which keep in mind, compares how the Chiefs have performed on a snap by snap basis compared to what has happened in the history of the league), the Chiefs have “faltered” enough as the season went along to become considered one of the luckier teams in history at 14-2.
What does all that mean? Maybe a lot. Maybe nothing. I think the short answer regarding the Chiefs is that they’re on paper a better team than they were last season at this time, BUT (there’s always a but) they’re a team that’s consistently played less than their best football down the stretch, at least in terms of consistency.
Of course, that “less than their best” consistently was still enough to beat a pair of Super Bowl contenders and a playoff contender, so there’s zero debate that the Chiefs are (even when not playing to their full potential) a very, very, very good team.
One thing to always note about offensive line play is that it’s very, very contextual and tough to draw conclusions from a single game. Of course, we do it anyways because it’s fun!
Durant did pretty well inside, which was a relatively stark contrast to how he looked at tackle to me (again, in an extremely small sample size). He looked more comfortable without having to move as much laterally and get into space. It’s worth noting he’s listed at a massive 6’6” and 331 pounds, and very few guys at that size are going to be nimble enough in space to deal with current NFL edge rushers and their absurd athleticism. He also lacks the experience to keep his feet disciplined in those situations and got caught off-balance too much as he lunged in efforts to keep up.
The short answer is that the Chiefs clearly don’t trust him at tackle right now (hence Wylie playing RT against the Saints), but that shouldn’t define his future with the team. He’s a rookie that was never intended to play this season, and the Chiefs have a great staff to develop his footwork so that he can learn to play in more space. I’d wait before even trying to figure out where he fits in the line’s future.
This is an interesting point. I don’t think there’s any way Reid would tell someone “you can’t coach (Team X),” as that doesn’t seem to be his style. However, there are a few good reasons an assistant wouldn’t want to join a division rival, etc.
The first and most obvious is that if you play in Andy Reid’s division, you’re going to be playing Andy Reid’s team twice every year and competing against him for the division crown (the first goal for any team that wants to compete for a Super Bowl). And Reid almost always has good teams. Particularly now, going within the AFC West (to the Chargers) would mean you’ve got to try to win a division with Reid and Mahomes for the foreseeable future. That’s not great.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, is that when assistants get a head coaching job somewhere they often try to bring some of “their” guys with them. While teams will always try to prevent losing good people to outgoing coaches, I imagine the fight would be even more intense if it was within the division.
To paraphrase Nate Taylor, unless Kafka does something crazy he’ll be the next guy in line after Bieniemy.
I have no idea. I’d hope so, but it’s worth noting that after a promising rookie season, he seems to have capped out as a decent but not great cornerback. Now, there’s definitely value to be had there, but one needs to be careful when paying guys who aren’t top tier.
The Chiefs, as I discussed above, have the ability to control Ward’s rights for one more year without breaking the bank, and imagine they’ll do so to see how things go. But as of now I’d say (based on most recent play) Ward has performed 4th best out of the Chiefs “main guys” of Breeland, Ward, Fenton and Sneed.
I think a few that people wouldn’t expect (such as role player types who hang around at a relatively low cost because other teams don’t feel the need to poach them), but there are a few obvious core candidates. And obviously players who are rookies this year will still be with the team at that point.
It’s impossible to project that sort of thing due to injuries and swings in play, but as of now I’d say the most indispensable players to the dynasty continuing besides Mahomes are Kelce, Hill, Jones, and Mathieu. Given Hill’s and Mathieu’s contract status, those will be the interesting two to watch moving forward. Oh, and Butker feels like a lifer.
I haven’t charted their wins/losses, so it’s tough to say. It’s always easier to perform well in limited opportunities like Pringle has than to be consistent once teams have broken down your role and strengths/weaknesses like they have with Robinson. That’s one reason low-volume receivers often get a lot of fan buzz for a year or two but usually don’t turn into more than that. It’s difficult to be a contributor on a team like the Chiefs for years, and the fact that Robinson has done so speaks to his ability.
I like Pringle a lot, and believe he has some untapped potential and runs slick routes. He also appears to have excellent hands and is, based on what I’ve seen, a superior runner after the catch. So while I don’t believe he’s surpassed Robinson at this point, I think he’s earned a few more snaps to see what happens as his volume increases.
Nah, they’ve been through this before with Bieniemy last year, Matt Nagy, and Doug Pederson. This is old hat stuff to them.
I had quite a few people ask about the best “fit” for Bieniemy, so I’ll talk about that here as well. If I were picking a place, I’d go with Jacksonville. There’s basically an ENTIRELY clean slate to start over with there. They obviously have the number 1 pick to grab the quarterback of a coach’s choice, but they also have an additional first round pick from the Rams and a pair of second round picks to play with. That’s enough for them to move up to grab another blue chip guy OR try and fill in a roster that lacks talent.
In addition to a plethora of picks to try and build a foundation, the Jaguars have somewhere between 75-100 MILLION dollars in cap space in 2021, with even more in the following years. Like I said, they have an entirely blank slate. They could be shifted to a young, competitive team in a single year with smart spending and drafting, then go all-in with massive free agency splashes in year 2.
People want to be head coaches to implement their vision. And in Jacksonville he’d have the freedom to do just that.
Mailbags are nothing if not a plea for help thinking of content!
I don’t want to be a “running backs don’t matter” guy, but I think the impact would be similar to what we’ve seen from Clyde Edwards-Helaire unless Reid utilized him differently. CEH is more explosive at this point by a wide margin and has demonstrated the ability to be an exceptional weapon in the passing game, but outside of some singular moments/games his role hasn’t been expanded like I would want to see.
This is particularly true in the passing game, where CEH’s role (and now Bell’s, by and large) has mostly been as a checkdown option on quick routes to the flat rather than anything more involved. It’s strange, because when CEH is asked to go down the field or run tougher routes he’s shown himself to be extremely adept, much like Bell was in his prime (and perhaps still is). Whether the Chiefs were saving that for the playoffs is impossible to say at this point.
I think Bell, at his peak, would move the needle on a few extra plays per game with his vision and receiving ability. And those several plays are very important in the context of an individual win/loss. But I don’t think it would cause the Chiefs to take a giant step forward from what we’ve seen with a healthy CEH. That’s the nature of the position (other than Jamaal Charles, who I will insist until my death was one of the only running backs in history who moved the needle on offense).
I didn’t rank it when discussing before, so here goes… in order from the best matchup for the Chiefs to the worst I’d say it’s Browns, Titans, Ravens, Colts.
Again, it might seem bizarre, but the Colts scare me a bit more than anyone else in that group. The Browns don’t have enough juice on offense, the Titans’ defense has struggled, and the Ravens seems to be snakebit against the Chiefs. That leaves the Colts.
All of those teams are talented and any one of them could beat the Chiefs on the right day, but I think the Colts’ odds due to matchup are just a little better.
Not really, no, other than the final week of the season. You’re seeing a lot of Andy Reid concepts with various things baked in and a myriad of different shot plays, but I believe the idea that the Chiefs are “keeping it vanilla” is generally an excuse when the offense doesn’t play quite as well as we’d like.
I think an offensive lineman is the way to go for the Chiefs this year, in multiple rounds.
Fisher has had one of the best careers of any player in the first round of the draft he was taken in. Granted, that says a lot about that particular draft but it’s also a reflection of how valuable solid left tackle play is year in and year out.
People get hung up on value for picks, but the most important thing is getting good players and avoiding bad ones. That sounds overly simplified, but if I’m a team who is 90% sure that an offensive lineman is a good player and only 50% sure that receiver or cornerback is a good player, I take the lineman. It’s not “value” in the sense of positional value, but it is in terms of grabbing a sure thing. One can’t go too far with that reasoning, but that’s how I approach the draft.
I think Mahomes would be incredible behind a dominant offensive line, and so I hope to see them invest there!
I think Anthony Hitchens and Willie Gay Jr. is the linebacker duo you’re going to see in Kansas City for the next few years. I know most fans aren’t thrilled with Hitchens, but the team’s opinion (and his teammates’) is much higher of him than most fans, and he’s a good quarterback of the defense. His contract was too much, but that’s sunk cost at this point and I’m not sure they could upgrade reasonably.
Pairing Hitchens with an athlete like Gay (who has shown flashes of being that “all around baller”) would hide some of his deficiencies and allow him to play to his strengths, and playing with Hitchens would help give Gay the freedom to fly around the field and make plays. It might be a good fit for both of them.
All right, this feels like a good stopping point for today. We’ll have another mailbag for subscribers only tomorrow. I have a million questions on Twitter still, but feel free to drop one below if you so desire and I’ll try to get to it!
Given our struggles on O-Line this year, how much of an impact will the return of LDT and Lucas Niang have next season? I feel like I haven't heard anybody talk about them. Are they enough to not have to invest heavily in the draft?
I would have loved seeing the Chiefs beat Rivers one more time. Alas it was not to be.