Bucking the trend: The Chiefs should be... running the ball more (seriously)

Defenses are daring them to take free yards. Doing so until they stop isn't a bad idea.

Passing the ball is much more efficient than running the ball at the NFL level. Passing the ball with Patrick Mahomes is MUCH more efficient than running the ball. Generally speaking, teams don’t need to run the ball much or successfully in order to set up play action. These are all things that have been covered by the analytics community extensively, and are basic facts of life in the NFL.

And yet…

And yet there are some circumstances where running the ball is the wiser choice. Those circumstances can be situational (short yardage situations, in the 4th quarter with a massive lead), but they can also be schematic.

And right now, the Chiefs are in the middle of one of the most unique schematic situations I’ve ever seen, one that’s begging them to go counter to well-established modern football wisdom and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) turn back the clock a little bit.

This play might seem like a completely random, albeit decent, gain on the ground by the Chiefs. But it’s demonstrative of one of the issues that makes Kansas City’s situation very unique.

Look where the safeties are as the play develops. You’ll need to wait until after the snap, because those guys are WAY out of the frame beforehand. This wasn’t on some 3rd and long where the Chiefs took the Titans by surprise running. This was a 1st and 10 where the Chiefs ran out a condensed formation (with everyone packed near the line of scrimmage and 2 tight ends).

And despite that, the Titans are playing 2-high with their safeties, and both of them are 20 yards off the line of scrimmage. And that’s where we get to the heart of the issue.

Teams aren’t playing the Chiefs like they’re a normal football team (because… well, they aren’t). They’re playing a ton of 2-high (whether it’s man, zone, pattern match, or mixed coverages underneath it) with an emphasis on bending coverage towards Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. In the meantime, they’re almost never blitzing linebackers, safeties, or anyone else, as the league has finally figured out that trying to beat Mahomes with the blitz is insanity.

That leaves the Chiefs in a situation where teams are gearing up to do everything they possibly can to stop Mahomes/Kelce/Hill, and in doing so are essentially “cheating” towards the pass. Particularly the deep ball.

Much has been made about Mahomes needing to “take what is there” in terms of short throws, and there’s some truth to that. However, the way teams are playing the Chiefs leads to another obvious way to take advantage of them: Math.

Look again at that first play. The Chiefs are condensed and have 5 OL plus 2 TEs in position to block for a run. The Titans don’t have a light box, with 7 defenders there, but running the ball is often a numbers and angles game. If offenses have “even” numbers with the defenders in the box (blockers vs defenders), they have an inherent advantage. Heck, offenses generally feel like they have an advantage if they only have one fewer blocker than defender, as it gives the running back a 1x1 opportunity (ideally in space). So even numbers? That’s just gravy.

And the Chiefs are seeing even numbers or better constantly.

This is the first play of the game, and a good example of how the Chiefs can put teams at a disadvantage. They’re in shotgun with one tight end on the line and 3 receivers lined up. This forces the Titans to have a bit lighter personnel (only 2 linebackers) and be spread across the field, especially when they’ve got a pair of safeties so deep they’re off the screen at the snap (seeing a pattern here?).

Also, look where the linebackers are. Even they are backed up a yard or two from the line of scrimmage, and one doesn’t even play the run initially, expecting a play action or RPO. This gives the Chiefs a numbers advantage up front that allows them to run combo blocks utilizing double teams to shove defensive tackles aside and then have another OL (often Humphrey, who has been tremendous) climb to the second level.

Between one linebacker backpedaling and the numbers game, this is an easy look for the Chiefs to exploit.

This run actually gained minimal yardage for how it started due to Remmers losing a little inside leverage. Watch how Humphrey and Smith blow back the defensive tackle to create a lane. Once Smith has some momentum he's a bulldozer, and Humphrey is exceptional at finding the angles in space to hit his blocks. Thuney is excellent at sealing off the back side of the play. Even with Remmers not hitting his block perfectly and Williams not exploding into the hole, it’s still an easy 5 yards.

And it’s not like the Chiefs are only seeing light boxes and defenders cheating to the pass on 1st and 10.

A wildly weak holding call against Trey Smith got this play called back, but it’s worth noting the process here on this 2nd and 2. It’s a short-yardage situation that teams also often use for shot plays, so the Titans are stuck in a bad spot when Kansas City lines up in empty and then motions Williams back into the backfield.

Look how light that box is. The Chiefs are once again left with a numbers advantage AND a technique advantage as the left edge rusher is looking to just get up the field. Thuney hits a reach block while Smith helps Humphrey hit his and then climbs to create a wall. Even with a missed block by the receiver (Gordon?) there’s huge yardage to be gained here (and seriously, where on earth is this “hold???”).

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The Chiefs’ offensive line is uniquely suited to wall off defenders and blow them off the line of scrimmage, especially when they have a numbers edge. They also have a number of players who can get into space, which allows them to utilize reverses, jet sweeps and other methods to spread out a defense effectively. They also just so happen to have the most dangerous player in the game on those sorts of looks.

There aren’t many lines in the league who are equipped to run power with exceptional success but also have several guys up front who can get vertical and help on looks like this, but the Chiefs have one. While they’re not a great fit for zone stretch looks (nor are the Chiefs’ running backs), they have the skillset to have a varied and dangerous run game.

Teams are ignoring that potential run game, and rightfully so, to try and contain what has been (Sunday’s results aside due to Mahomes playing worse than I’ve ever seen him play) a very effective passing attack. It just so happens the best way to contain that passing attack (2 high safeties, never blitz, have the linebackers cheating to coverage, have the edge rushers cheating towards pass rushing rather than setting up for the run) make defenses more vulnerable to a powerful rushing attack.

Despite that almost unprecedented schematic advantage and the maulers they have up front, though, the Chiefs aren’t taking advantage of those moments. They barely ran the ball against the Titans, despite having success when they did so. While some of that can be chalked up to game script, it’s still worth noting that even when they could have punished those “cheating” looks by the Titans more they did not.

Almost everything I’ve researched and written over the last 3 or 4 years points to the idea that the Chiefs should be passing the ball perhaps 80 percent of the time, or perhaps even more. However, football doesn’t occur in a vacuum, and the Chiefs are in one of the most unique situations I’ve seen. Teams are DARING them, BEGGING them, to run the ball in a manner that they’re well-suited to take advantage of. It only makes sense for them to oblige to an extent and see if they can, in fact, grab those easy yards that their current offensive line is built to take.

The Chiefs will always, while Patrick Mahomes is in town, be built around their passing game. And they should. But if someone gives you free yards in the NFL, it’s not a bad idea to take it until they stop doing so. And by forcing teams out of the looks they’re going with (with the help of Mahomes taking the underneath looks time and again), they’ll force defenses to re-think they newest “template” to hold down Kansas City’s offense.