The Other Guys, part 1: L'Jarius Sneed
The Other Guys, part 1: L'Jarius Sneed
I take a look at players who are less talked about but could have an outsized impact on the Super Bowl.
Everyone knows that the two most important players in the Super Bowl are Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Everyone also knows that the coaching battle will play a massive role in the result of the game. Chris Jones, Tyrann Mathieu, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill (MAN the Chiefs have a lot of stars), and the Chiefs’ offensive line against the Buccaneers pass rush is going to get a lot of print this week.
But what about the other guys? Last year, players like Sammy Watkins, Damien Williams, Bashaud Breeland, Derrick Nnadi, Rashad Fenton, Kendall Fuller and a whole slew of other players played a wildly important role in the Chiefs’ raising the Super Bowl banner for the first time in 50 years. So this week, I’m going to take a look at some of the less-talked-about players who I believe could play a major role in who walks home a champion after Sunday’s game.
I already wrote about safety Juan Thornhill and his return to Pro Bowl caliber form (and apparent full health) last week, and he’s the first guy I’d say to keep an eye on. The next player is another one who has had some health issues this year and plays in the secondary: Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed.
Sneed has had an interesting season. After being drafted in the fourth round as a relatively unheralded prospect, he’s been PFF’s most highly-rated rookie cornerback despite being the 16th player at his position taken. His physical talent was undeniable coming out, but very few expected him to play at the level he’s played this season.
Sneed was truly thrown into the fire in a way few rookie cornerbacks are, being asked to play almost every snap in his very first pro game (mind you, after a weird offseason with no in-person OTA’s). I charted every snap he took that game, and he was wildly impressive. However, my expectation was that Sneed’s level of play would taper off as the year went along and opposing teams discovered his weak areas. Given the volatility of cornerback play, this felt like a reasonable expectation.
However, Sneed has continued to play at a high level throughout the year. The only thing that stopped him from entering into the defensive rookie of the year conversation (besides the existence of Chase Young) was the fact that he was injured in Week 3 and did not return until November 22, even then playing minimal snaps as he got his legs underneath him.
Sneed has an impressive combination of size and athleticism that is tough to find, as it’s often a case of choosing between one or the other when talking about cornerbacks. Sneed’s range has been a welcome addition to the Chiefs’ secondary this year.
In addition to being a rangy player due to his athleticism, Sneed has shown a varied skillset in his rookie season that belies his lack of experience. We’ll talk more about that skillset in a bit, but first let’s talk about the impact he’s been able to have on the defense.
Because Sneed missed time due to injury this year, I’m able to look at what the defense looked like both with and without him. This is an inexact science given the huge number of factors that go into how the defense performs in a given game, but there were a couple of interesting notes. I went back and examined games in which Sneed played at or above 40% of the snaps compared to ones he did not, focusing on the “expected points” allowed by the pass defense, opponents’ 3rd down percentage, Adjusted Yards per Attempt, and points per game.
Expected points is a reflection of how well the opponent was able to move the ball in ways that made them more (or less) likely to score. The lower the number (or a negative number, which would mean the pass defense HELPED the Chiefs score more than they allowed the other team to get in position to score), the better. Third down percentage and points per game are self-explanatory, though they are broad categories. Adjusted Yards per attempt are yards per pass attempt that also take touchdowns and interceptions into consideration as well as completions and attempts (so basically a better version of passer rating).
Let’s look at the numbers with Sneed playing at or above 40% of the snaps vs without, and then talk about some context of those games.
Before looking at the numbers, you should note that the Chiefs played the following quarterbacks WITH Sneed taking 40% or more of the snaps: Watson, Herbert, Jackson, Brady, Lock, Tua, Brees, Ryan, Mayfield, and Allen. They played the following WITHOUT Sneed taking 40% or more of the snaps: Hoyer/Stidham, Carr (twice), Allen, Lock, Darnold, Bridgewater. That’s important.
(EDIT- Because I’m a professional, I switched the “with Sneed” and Without Sneed” boxes. The first line should be “WITHOUT Sneed,” the second should be “WITH Sneed.” Like I said, very professional. Carry on)
On the surface, these numbers look like they don’t necessarily favor Sneed’s impact on defense. After all, the Chiefs pass defense gave up slightly more expected points per game and AY/A per game with Sneed than without. Bad, right?
Well, no. Because that’s where context comes into play. Take a look at the list of quarterbacks the Chiefs played with Sneed. Outside of Lock, there’s an argument to be made that they didn’t play a below-average quarterback (maybe Tua?) and played six top-10 guys with another few top-15 guys while Sneed was on the field. Without him, they played several disasters in Lock, Hoyer/Stidham, and Darnold, and only faced average or above-average quarterback play in Allen, Bridgewater and Carr.
In other words, the Chiefs’ performance without Sneed should be DRASTICALLY better than it was with him considering the quality of competition. Instead, the numbers are relatively similar in expected points given up and AY/A, and are actually improved on third down and in points per game.
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That third down percentage is especially interesting. While third down percentage isn’t entirely a function of pass defense (third and short is treated by many teams as a run down), a great deal of how successful a team is in this area depends on how well they cover opposing wide receivers and tackle in space. The fact that the Chiefs fare so much better there against superior competition with Sneed in the lineup full-time is encouraging.
Long story short… with Sneed in the lineup the Chiefs have been able to make good quarterbacks look average to mediocre. One needs to look no further than the playoffs against Mayfield and Allen, both of whom had excellent seasons. The Chiefs held both quarterbacks below 50% conversion rate on third down, and both the Bills and Browns were held a full touchdown below their normal scoring output. Additionally, the AY/A of Mayfield/Allen was 4.84 and 5.88, respectively. For frame of reference, Dwayne Haskins averaged 5.1 AY/A and Drew Lock averaged 5.8 AY/A in 2020.
Even more stunningly, the Chiefs pass defense did such a good job preventing the Browns and the Bills from moving the ball effectively they actually ADDED expected points on defense (6.18 against the Browns, 4.92 against the Bills) rather than losing them. In other words, when the Browns/Bills passed the ball it did more to add to the Chiefs’ expected points overall than their opponent.
Kansas City has asked Sneed to move inside as of late due to the presence of Breeland and Ward on the outside, and the rookie has acquitted himself well. This allows Steve Spagnuolo to utilize Tyrann Mathieu all over the field as opposed to being forced to line up in the slot on obvious passing downs. Sneed has also served as a versatile piece in the defense’s blitz packages. But let’s look at what he can do that has made him so valuable and could impact the Super Bowl.
First, in addition to the range that Sneed has shown repeatedly, he’s more than willing to play physical in coverage when the occasion calls for it.
On this 3rd and 7, the Chiefs are sending an aggressive blitz at Josh Allen. Sneed knows the call, and also knows that he’s covering Allen’s favorite outlet in Cole Beasley.
Sneed responds by playing very physical at the line of scrimmage, jamming Beasley effectively and not allowing him to get any sort of free release. He slows down the route by a full second, an eternity at the NFL level (especially when blitzing). That’s all the time the rest of the defense needs to get intense pressure on Allen, and the result is ultimately an intentional grounding penalty.
Sneed good size/strength/length to make those sort of jams count, and is able to get away with being this physical at the line because he knows that he has the deep speed to turn and run with receivers if he’s “even” with them after the initial press. He’s also capable of running with receivers horizontally on crosser/drag routes, and so doesn’t need to fear (as much as some corners) being left behind in that situation. There aren’t a lot of receivers who have shown an ability to beat him down the field.
Here, though Thornhill makes a great play on the ball as well, Sneed is able to go stride for stride with Diggs. He gets a little contact at the line but Diggs (being a stud) is able to get his shoulder dipped and go around Sneed’s contact.
Once that happens, corners are often in trouble, but Sneed seamlessly transitions into a trial technique without panicking, staying right with Diggs and not getting thrown off by a subtle inside fake. He reads Diggs’ body language and gets his head turned around to contest the throw right as it arrives. Even if Thornhill hadn’t gotten there, this is fantastic coverage on a good route from one of the best in the business.
Sneed’s knack for feeling the routes of receivers he’s covering is what separates him from a lot of other players with his physical gifts, especially rookies. He has repeatedly shown good instincts in reading where the breaks are coming and sticking with his man, beating the route to the catch point to cut off a throw or make the quarterback pay for trying one.
Here, Sneed is again playing physical at the line and travels with the receiver up the field. He doesn’t get fooled by the out-breaking route (the sort of quick movement that can beat aggressive coverage when cornerbacks over-commit), and instead stays in position with good feet and cuts in front of the ball for an interception (with a little toe drag swag to go with it).
Sneed isn’t perfect in coverage. He can get overly grabby at times, especially over the middle of the field. But he’s shown an excellent combination of speed, quickness, physicality, instincts, and ball skills that have made him the best cornerback out of a solid group in 2020.
He’s also (and this is something that Tampa Bay is doubtlessly preparing for right now) shown a tremendous knack as a blitzer for Spagnuolo, who loves sending his slot cornerbacks after the quarterback.
There’s a bit of an art to blitzing for corners. The idea, of course, is to get unblocked pressure for a much better athlete than the quarterback, who can close quickly. However, a lot of corners aren’t able to deal with any contact at all if their blitz is picked up. Sneed has shown the ability to deal with contact and good instincts in pursuing where the quarterback is, rather than just running in a straight line. Here, he gets picked up late by the right tackle but shows some NICE cornering around the edge rather than getting pushed wide.
Once Sneed has a shot at the quarterback, he does a nice job not over-committing and getting shaken one way or the other. He’s dogged in his pursuit and is a willing, physical tackler (both on quarterbacks and in the open field), and he’s able to collect the sack.
Sneed becoming one of Spagnuolo’s primary blitzers has been a recent development, and he’s excelled at it. Starting with the New Orleans game (week 15, when Spags starting blitzing him more), Sneed has collected 4 sacks and 5 hits on opposing quarterbacks.
It’s Sneed’s ability as a blitzer that might come into focus against the Buccaneers. Brady’s pocket presence is exceptional, but he’s not a mobile quarterback. He’ll be relying on getting the presnap reads correct and getting a blocker on Sneed (and other blitzers) initially to try and push the ball down the field, OR seeing where it’s coming form and getting the ball out so fast that the blitz doesn’t matter.
Reviewing the Week 12 matchup between KC and Tampa Bay, Sneed was still getting his legs underneath him and didn’t play as big a role in the defense as he does now. Spags has utilized Sneed’s skillset in the slot to play Mathieu all over the field and disguise coverages even more than he was earlier in the season. That, combined with Sneed’s blitzing and ability to cover down the field, are going to be crucial games in the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers were able to complete some deep shots in Week 12 to at least create the appearance of a contest down the stretch (though they relied on a lot of luck for that to happen as well). Sneed can help keep that from happening out of the slot.
There are a lot of players who are getting more hype than Sneed heading into the Super Bowl. But he’s established himself as a very important and versatile player for Spagnuolo, and has just the sort of swiss-army-knife abilities to let the Chiefs play an aggressive and creative gameplan that will (hopefully) flummox Brady and company early. Don’t be surprised if Sneed ends up flashing on your screen multiple times Sunday, whether it’s down the field contesting throws, in the flat playing physical, or sprinting after Brady looking for a game-altering play.
My one concern with Sneed is that he has missed a couple of third down tackles that would have gotten them off the field sooner and prevented points. They were good plays by the offensive player - they pay those guys, too!
One of the advantages of playing so much dime and blitzing with defensive backs is that then the blitzers could cope with the athleticism of Mayfield and Allen as they try to break out of the pocket. With Brady, that is much less of a concern.
This is a tricky match-up, which makes for a tasty Super Bowl. I do not want to work these next four days. I want to sit in front of game pass and get psyched.
I might be confused here but it looks like the defense with Sneed gave up less pass EP and less AY/A than without Sneed. You say the opposite in the next paragraph, can you clarify?