Six things I'll be watching in Chiefs/Bills and Underdog Picks
Looking at some of the matchups that will determine the outcome of the AFC Championship, along with some picks I like for this Sunday.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again… I love playoff football. Especially once you reach the conference championships.
There’s a purity to it. You’ve generally weeded out pretenders (everyone had to earn their spot here with a solid regular season plus either two playoff wins OR earning a bye week and then getting a playoff win). The teams are talented, and usually a cut above the rest of the league in terms of coaching and discipline (sometimes not if they’re talented enough, but usually). It’s the best of the best in a one-off game where every team has to do everything it can to advance.
One of the things that separates playoff football from the regular season is matchup-dependent gameplans. During the regular season, teams are doing their best to win games… but they also often stick to a lot of what they “do” in terms of play calling, personnel, etc. There’s obviously a specific gameplan for each week, but coaches often look at it in terms of installing their offense/defense over the course of the season, and building layers upon layers.
There’s no more “hiding the good plays” or saving snaps for guys. It’s absolute all-out, every snap, as you sit a mere 60 minutes from a shot at the greatest prize in football. And teams scour for the smallest edge in their matchups as they attempt to go to the next level. When good teams play each other, the margin of error is thin, and multiple factors will determine who advances.
And so, each week in the playoffs, I take a look at the issues/matchups I believe will most determine the result of the game. Last week, I broke down five things I’d be watching between the Chiefs and Texans. And now, as the Bills come to Arrowhead after beating Kansas City in Buffalo in Week 11, I’ve got six more things I’ll be paying attention to that I think could swing the game one way or another.
Buffalo was able to beat the Chiefs in that regular season matchup (which has become a regular occurrence), on the back of a strong performance from Josh Allen and their defense playing decently. Of course, there are a number of players who are now healthy on both teams who missed that game, and as we saw last week, a regular season game doesn’t necessarily offer a real “preview” of what it will look like in the playoffs. It’s an interesting matchup between two VERY good teams who have a variety of ways they can win.
So let’s talk about the matchups/issues I’ll be watching Sunday.
Stop the… run?
This may seem counterintuitive. It’s 2025, after all. Passing is king. And the Bills have a great QB.
All the same, I think stopping the run against the Bills is paramount. They’ve developed into a real “bully ball” team this year, one that has a lot of success running the ball on 1st down. Through that, they’re able to set up advantageous down and distance situations and open up the whole playbook in a way that leaves defenses at a disadvantage. It also helps them get the box loaded and set up play action looks for chunk plays. Finally, it lets the grind teams into dust once they have a lead.
One thing the Bills have done a bunch of this year is bring in Alec Anderson as an eligible receiver (and de facto 6th OL). They try to gain a size/weight advantage and use that to throw teams off balance. And their talented RB duo of James Cook and Ty Johnson take advantage. Cook in particular spooks me as a good runner with speed and vision, who is able to hit the edge in a hurry.
