Mahomes and the Chiefs have got to figure out shot plays
Big plays were the difference against the Bills, and KC doesn't make enough.
It’s been a long time since we’ve had to watch that happen.
As Mahomes’ desperation heave on 4th down was picked off and the Bills began to celebrate their seemingly-annual regular season win over the Chiefs, I was in a rather contemplative mood. On one hand, I was supremely annoyed that Kansas City had let a golden opportunity to seize firm control over the AFC slip through their fingers (they are still at the top, but their margin for error has vanished). On the other, I couldn’t help but think about how long it had been since I’d sat through a Chiefs loss.
330 days. That’s how long it was between December 25th, 2023 and November 18th, 2024. Nearly a full calendar year. That’s a long time to not have to contemplate the “why” behind a loss. Of course, those who have been following the Chiefs closely this year know that they’ve been playing with fire a little too often, either not putting teams away or wasting golden opportunities to seize control of games. That happened again against the Bills, who are too good a team for the Chiefs to play with their food (yes, they’re playing with fire AND their food).
The good and bad news of the day, for me, is that I have no doubt what the biggest culprit was in why the Bills were able to beat the Chiefs. We could talk about pass rush and pass protection (both are a big deal). We could talk about the coverage concerns for the Chiefs beyond Trent McDuffie in the CB room (that definitely matters!). We could talk about the Chiefs being vulnerable in coverage in the middle of the field when Nick Bolton gets isolated. But those weren’t the biggest reason the Chiefs lost from my perspective.
The biggest reason? The Bills had 6 plays in the passing game (5 completions, 1 penalty) that resulted in 20+ yards. The Chiefs? They had exactly one, this deep ball to Worthy early in the game that gave us the false hope that things would be different in a game that mattered.
This is a nice play design for Xavier Worthy to use his speed to try and beat man coverage, particularly against a single high safety. And Hopkins running across the field as well creates something of a natural pick. Finally, Worthy made a nice catch knowing that he was going to take a huge hit right after the ball arrived. A great play.
The problem is that play stood alone on a day the Chiefs’ defense wasn’t able to be as dominant as normal. And the Bills relied on big plays on virtually all of their scoring drives on the day, while Kansas City had to drag itself down the field in a way that narrowed its margin for error.
Let’s talk about big plays, and how Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Worthy need to figure this out sooner rather than later if they want to give themselves their best chance moving forward.
I’ve thought of a few ways to discuss this, because there are layers here. The first is the discrepancy in big plays (which I’ve referenced briefly) between Buffalo and Kansas City and how it affected the game. The second is to how one of their big plays failed (you all know what play I’m talking about) and what that tells us about where things are at. And the final is discussing the makeup of the offense and the lack of even big play attempts. Let’s go through that one at a time.