Know your Chiefs draft crush Part 1, methodology and Walter Nolen

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It’s that time of the year again. The time we peer into our crystal balls and gaze into the stars to ascertain the future. That’s right, it’s draft season! And that means it’s time to dust off our yearly “know your Chiefs draft crush” series.

For some analysts, draft season is all year long. My colleagues at KC Sports Network do some of the very best work in the business, with a Chiefs-centric draft guide that is available now (this is one that all of you should purchase if you haven’t already). Danny Kelly with The Ringer has a terrific big board that he works on every year. My good friend Ryan Tracy has one of the best athletic matrix-based draft guides you’ll ever find. And of course, industry legend Dane Brugler releases “The Beast” draft guide based on his year-round scouting and legwork.

But for me, draft season starts now. As some of you know, I don’t follow college football. So while I start off far behind the 8-ball in terms of knowing the entire field, it allows me to look at potential prospects with new eyes, having none of the biases that a year (or more) of takes can create. I try to use those fresh eyes to talk about prospects the Chiefs might consider in the early rounds (you can use the draft guides linked above to look at players who are likely to be taken after the 2nd-3rd round or so. My focus is exclusively on those early-round type guys).

This year is a little bit different than previous seasons for the Chiefs, when it was terribly apparent that they had a glaring need (wide receiver, offensive tackle, etc) to be addressed. Last season’s focus was exclusively on WR, which is why we were fortunate enough to review Xavier Worthy’s film long before Kansas City grabbed him (honestly, looking back at that review I feel solid about the prognosis I had for him as a guy who could contribute right away… but I digress). In 2025? It’s a lot harder to say.

The Chiefs took a swing at trying to resolve their issues at LT by grabbing Jaylon Moore in free agency (a move I feel decent about after watching his film, for what it’s worth). They’ve brought back most of the defense (with the exception of losing Turk Wharton and Justin Reid), and have signed a terrific fit at CB in Kristian Fulton while taking a swing at a talented defensive tackle in Jerry Tillery and bringing back Charles Omenihu, Nick Bolton, Mike Pennel, and old friend Mike Edwards. They also brought back Hollywood Brown on offense to try and finally have a full(ish) season of the planned WR trio of Rashee Rice, Brown, and Worthy.

All that is a long road to a short thought that the Chiefs don’t have any true GLARING weak spots right now that demand immediate attention. They have areas that could use a talent infusion, but nothing that is a “gotta have it” spot the way wide receiver was last year. They’re generally in a position to take the best player available within reason. That’s a nice place to be for a team that has made three straight Super Bowls.

What that means is that I’ll take a broader approach to this year’s draft. I believe the most likely positions the Chiefs would look at early would be (in order) defensive tackle, wide receiver, and offensive line. Defensive tackle is, in my opinion, the most sensible direction to go in a talented draft class and with KC having just a pair of guys (Tillery and Pennel) on one-year deals next to superstar Chris Jones. So my primary focus will be there. But I’d also like to take a look at a few potential guys at WR and OL given the current construction of the team. Further, there are always some fan favorites and talented players that people may like to see reviewed at other positions.

I asked Chiefs Twitter what players they’d like me to take a look at, and I’ll also take requests in the comments below. As you know, there’s not much time left until the draft, so we’ll do the best we can to get through as many players as we can!

Today, we’ll start with Walter Nolen, a defensive tackle a lot of people have asked me about. Nolen is a player who seems to draw a wide variety of opinions, with some viewing him as a potential top-10 pick and others believing he could fall to the end of the first round. That’s just the type of player who feels appropriate to start off with. Following him, I’ll look at Oregon’s Derrick Harmon, a player many are currently mocking to the Chiefs.

Before we get started, here’s a little methodology on how I’ll look at defensive tackles (obviously for OL and WRs it’ll be a bit different). I’ll look at every snap from at least 4 games, looking for traits I believe are important in a DT. Those are as follows: Power (upper and lower body), athleticism/burst, technique/handfighting (both as a pass rusher and run defender), and an overall takeaway. In each of those areas, I’ll talk about how those traits affect said player’s ability against the pass and the run.

Basically, the idea is to gauge traits that are shown by the player that may translate to the next level. And as I’ve said before, TRAITS are what you’re looking at with college players (rather than pure performance, given the quality of competition and schematic use varying). In short… what does a player do well/poorly, and how could this be harnessed (or a weakness) in the pros? We’ll never know for certain, but the film is always the best way to try and project how a player will perform at the next level.

All right, let’s talk about Nolen, a 6’4”, 294 defensive tackle out of Ole Miss. The games I reviewed were against Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Oklahoma.

Upper Body Power

We’re going to start with Nolen’s flashing neon sign trait, the one that (combined with some other factors we’ll get to momentarily) has people talking about him as a potential top-15 pick. Because Nolen’s upper body power is high level in a way that pops out pretty quickly on film, both as a pass rusher and against the run. Watch the way Nolen is able to punch backwards his blocker here.

This is what people mean when they use the term “heavy hands” (well, that and other stuff we’ll talk about in a second). Nolen is able to jar his blocker backwards here as soon as he makes contact. He doesn’t just hold his ground or stalemate the blocker to control the gap, he actively knocks him into the backfield and right into the path of the runner. It’s a full yard to yard and a half. Further, it’s not just a matter of having that initial heavy contact, which is a function of powerful arms. Nolen also has powerful hands that allow him to control the blocker throughout their contact and keep both gaps fully accounted for.

You’ll see Nolen consistently utilize his upper body power to knock back individual offensive linemen, control gaps, and set the edge. As a run defender it’s his best trait and can be weaponized by lining him up in spots where he can affect the play by dominating the initial contact point with his ability to push back blockers.

This snap shows off some lower body power too, but the thing we’re looking at here is once again his ability to jar back the blocker. He does it so well on this snap that the blocker ends up in the path of another pulling offensive lineman, slowing him down and allowing time for other defenders to rally into position. He also forces the RB wider than he’d like to go. In other words, even though Nolen doesn’t collect a stat on this play, he’s the primary reason it’s a stuff. And it’s largely due to his upper body power and ability to win that 1x1 battle.

As a pass rusher, Nolen’s upper body power is a major plus. He often utilizes it to push/move blockers to the side and create a rush lane for himself, or move attempted punches off him.

Watch the way he uses his right arm to move the LG to the side here in order to rush the outside shoulder.

Having the power with one arm to use an OL’s momentum against him and get him either out of the way or (more commonly) to half a man is a highly coveted trait in interior pass rushers. When you can do it, it means you’re not reliant on winning the handfighting battle or on utilizing your quickness to get a step. You can engage and actively move the blocker to a spot where you can get after the quarterback. In other words, you’re CREATING a pass rush lane where none previously existed.

Nolen’s upper body power was consistent across the games that I watched regardless of opponent, and he was able to generate multiple wins against the pass and the run with it. That, combined with his lower body power, creates a very high ceiling for him as a pass rusher and is where you MAY get some comparisons to Chris Jones’ college tape. And in terms of raw power and ability to win those upper and lower body battles, I can’t say I entirely disagree with those comps. Especially when we take into account his next trait in terms of pass rush.

Lower Body Power

So let’s be clear… there are a few different aspects of lower body power. Since I’m talking about the Chris Jones comp, let’s start with how it relates to pass rush. The most valuable aspect of lower body power as a pass rusher is the ability to fight through contact and continue to move towards the QB. What makes Jones elite isn’t just his freakish upper body power (and freakish athleticism, but I digress), but it’s his ability to fight through blocks once he’s gained even a fraction of a step.

Nolen, at least on his college tape, has that ability as well, and it’s his best PASS RUSHER trait. Here’s one of my favorite snaps to show off what I’m talking about here, even though it takes him a moment to get to the QB (you’ll see why in a sec).

This is a great snap to show off both Nolen’s upper body power and lower body power working in concert to help him get to the QB. First of all, he threatens the A-gap to the center’s right (his left), then crosses the center’s face and goes the other way. This brings him right into the RB, who he utterly demolishes despite still being engaged with the blocker. Sometimes just being flat-out strong is the best trait one can have.

But it’s more than just having that power in his left arm to club the RB aside. He’s got the lower body power (and the balance that comes with it) to keep churning through and making progress into the pocket even as he’s engaging. Then, despite the fact that the blocker is still engaged, he’s able to fight his way through that block and start to corner. This is where the Jones comp would come into play.

Watch the feet of Nolen and the OL to see where they make contact after he shrugs the RB to the side. The idea for the OL is to direct Nolen around the pocket. The problem is that Nolen’s lower body power allows him to lean through that contact and not get shoved wide, all while starting to corner around the lineman. This is a different type of cornering than what you see from the edge with bend (though he’s got a little ankle flexibility for an interior guy). This more requires the lower body strength to simply not be moved AS you drive around the corner.

Because Nolen is able to essentially keep the OL in place as he corners, he’s able to move directly into the QB rather than several yards down the field.

This ability to fight through contact is, as I said, Nolen’s best trait as a pass rusher. It complements his upper body power really nicely, and he harnesses it well.

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Nolen utilizes his strong hands/arms, or his lateral agility (which we’ll talk about next), to try and grab himself just a sliver of room. And once he has it, he’s able to drive right by/through remaining contact towards the QB and crush the pocket.

Nolen also uses that lower body power in run defense. He most often utilizes it either to get down the line against reach blocks (which can’t move him enough to be effective) or to try and penetrate gaps and stop runners in their tracks.

Nolen is not necessarily a “point of attack” defensive tackle in the sense that he’s the guy to line up in the A-gap and take on double teams, but he definitely can be an asset in that area due to his ability to handle blockers 1x1 and run through contact. That’s the benefit of lower body power.

Now, to be clear, Nolen’s lower body power does come with some limits. He shows it in spades moving up the field or through contact once he’s engaged. But he’s not a terribly powerful anchor guy against more than one blocker in the run game. He plays at under 300 pounds and it looks like it at times when he’s lined up on the interior and teams want to run doubles or combo blocks at him. There were times that he was driven far out of the running lane, particularly when he didn’t see the block coming or when he let his momentum get him carried too far. So while he shows the power to be an asset against the run, there are situations (like any player better suited to penetrate gaps than 2-gap) where he’ll be at a disadvantage due to lacking “NT” type size.

Athleticism/Burst

Nolen is an interesting guy on tape in terms of athleticism. This is where the Chris Jones comp gets shakier, as Jones is a legitimately elite athlete (though I’d note he didn’t move as well in college as he does now, which is both funny and a testament to the work he’s put in).

On one hand, Nolen DOES have good lateral agility, something that he utilizes frequently as a pass rusher in order to gain an edge against blockers.

Here, you see the way Nolen is able to move well from side to side, and how he weaponizes it. He can legitimately threaten both gaps against a blocker and is able to change those gaps at the last moment, as he does here, due to his comfort in moving side to side. That makes him dangerous all across the interior, as guard-to-center they aren’t able to predict which shoulder he’ll attack. That’s a big advantage for a player who is trying to get to half a man in order to power through the block into the pocket. So in that sense, the Jones comp holds up.

Where Nolen isn’t as high level is his burst off the line. His first step and acceleration aren’t bad, but they also don’t pop the way his lateral agility does. That leads to him not being able to grab an advantage at the snap by exploding into the gap the way you’ll see with Jones. Because of this, at times blockers are able to comfortably get in front of him if he’s not able to make them guess wrong with his agility. That could lower his ceiling a bit as a pass rusher if he’s not able to improve in that area.

Nolen does show the agility to participate in stunts, and given his power he arrives very strong in those situations. He’s a good athlete for a powerful player. It’s just that explosion and first step that aren’t high level, though they’re certainly adequate.

Technique/Handfighting

Here is where Nolen is going to need the most work as a pro. I’ve talked AT LENGTH about his physical gifts, and they are considerable. But because of that, he doesn't necessarily need to pass rush with a plan. And he often doesn’t. When Nolen isn’t able to generate movement at the snap (moving the blocker to the side, tossing him, getting half a step with his agility, etc), he generally lacks a transition into another move designed to free his hands. That can result in snaps where he’s pushing/pulling relatively uselessly on a blocker without making real progress. He needs a little work on freeing his hands other than just relying on his natural power and rips, though he does show a good understanding of leverage overall in terms of when to toss/club blockers.

Nolen also needs some work (as pretty much all college DL do) in locating the ball and learning to read where blocks are coming from. Some of his worst snaps came when he got himself out of the play by getting caught up in a 1x1 matchup and either didn’t see where a runner was moving or got taken by surprise by another blocker. The times he got knocked off his feet were generally due to this.

Overall Takeaway

After watching Nolen, I see the vision for him as a pro. He has several high-level and complementary traits (his upper and lower body power alongside his lateral agility) that generally translate well to the pro level, and his ability to consistently win 1x1 matchups is valuable. He was EASILY the focal point of pretty much every offensive line he faced, consistently having to battle with extra attention. He generally showed a willingness to keep fighting in those moments, and that was nice to see.

In terms of what might keep Nolen from succeeding as a pro, I’d say his lack of high-level explosion at the snap is at least something to keep an eye on. He’ll also, as I said, need to develop his hand usage and plan in order to win with more than talent once he’s going up against players that he can’t just physically dominate every snap. Those things are reasons I can see why some would be at least a little bit cooler on his potential, as explosion is one of the first things you look for in an interior pass rusher.

I don’t know what the supposed “off field” concerns are related to Nolen, and likely only teams do. But in terms of his tape, I think he’d be a very good pick at 31 and wouldn’t be upset if they even moved up a little to grab him. He’s a nice fit for what they do on the defensive line and would be a really intriguing piece to add rotational juice in year one (I think he could provide pass rush pop from the interior right away) while developing him long-term. And it just so happens a reasonable comp for his college tape is right here in KC, who could teach him how to harness those gifts.

Next time (as soon as tomorrow afternoon or Saturday morning, I’m going to start churning these out pretty quickly now) we’ll look at Oregon DT Derrick Harmon. I can’t wait to start sifting through these guys, and here’s hoping they all hold up as well on tape as Nolen did overall.