If I were Brett Veach, Part 2: In-house free agents
Looking at who the Chiefs should prioritize among their own free agents as our offseason series continues.
Every offseason, I put myself in the shoes of the Chiefs general manager and walk through what I would do if I were… well, wearing his shoes. We look at each phase of the offseason, and then make some changes as the Chiefs’ ACTUAL plan becomes more apparent. In part 1, I wrote about salary cap vs cash spending, how the Chiefs have more flexibility than one might think, and how I’d free up some cap space if I were Veach. Today, we’ll talk about Chiefs players hitting free agency and who I’d make the most effort to keep if I were Veach.
There’s an interesting dynamic that is at play when it comes to in-house free agency and NFL fans. On one hand, there is a tendency for fans to somewhat overrate players on their own team. This can happen for any number of reasons (lack of context from watching other guys as much, emotions getting involved for guys who have made big plays in big moments, leftover hope from earlier in a player’s career, etc), but it’s something that is pretty consistent. On the flip side, there’s also a tendency to UNDERRATE certain players as well. The “unknown” is at times treated as better than a “known” quantity that is fine, but not great.
In other words, with most players on their own team NFL fans tend to view them in a little bit of a binary fashion… either great or terrible. One thing that is consistent? We tend to overrate the “upside” of the unknown. Young players who haven’t shown anything or guys we don’t know much about are viewed in terms of what they COULD be, while average(ish) veterans we’re familiar with are viewed in terms of what they are NOT. All that is a long road to a short thought that people almost always have opinions on in-house free agents, and they are almost always very strong opinions.
The Chiefs, following falling just short of a threepeat, have a lot of free agents hitting the market if one does not include recently-tagged Trey Smith (I would not have utilized the franchise tag on him given the entire context of the offseason, but I’m not screaming about it either given his age and the fact that he’s improved every year… but we’ll come back to him). The list of “snaps” the Chiefs are losing is lengthy, as there is a LONG list of free agents this season. Here’s the full list thanks to Over The Cap, sorted by snap count percentage.
Obviously that list includes a number of players who weren’t impact guys last season. But it’s worth noting that you’ve got eight players who saw over 40% of the snaps, and a lot more who saw a decent chunk of playing time.
It’s worth noting that there are multiple restricted free agents (“RFA”) and exclusive rights restricted free agents (ERFA”) listed. What those mean are laid out in detail here, but the short answer is the Chiefs can keep those guys if they want them without breaking the bank on single-year contracts. The short answer is that in this list, I’d tender everyone except Shrader. Hey, that was easy, no?
Where it becomes complicated are the unrestricted free agents. I'm going to use the same methodology I did last offseason and group them into four groups, talking about each in turn.
Gotta Have ‘Em - Make it work (and I’ll detail how I’d go about it)
If The Money Is Right - Make every effort to keep them, but no top of market deal (worth noting these are guys we’d really like to keep)
Bargain Bin Only - If they want to stay for cheap, terrific! Otherwise, let them test free agency and see what they find (maybe sign them back afterwards if they don’t like their market).
Let Them Go - Pretty self-explanatory, but I’ll probably explain some regardless.
All that make sense? All right, let’s get moving, as we’ve got a LOT of players to talk about
(NOTE- In terms of contract talk, IF I mention it I’ll stick with more generalized numbers for in-house and new free agents, as it becomes a rabbit trail if you go too far down the line. The short story is I wouldn’t advise a move the Chiefs can’t, on paper, afford, and as I wrote about in Part 1 of our series, cash spending can create a little more flexibility)
Gotta Have ‘Em
Nobody - Every FA position
Yes, you read that correctly. There’s not a single free agent on that entire gigantic list that I view as a “gotta have ‘em” player. The closest is Smith, who has been a very good (but not quite elite) player along the offensive line for multiple seasons and is currently franchise tagged, and Omenihu, who is the second best pass rusher on the team and a guy who fits Spags’ system perfectly in many ways.