Football 201: QB play vs QB stats, what is "open," reads within structure, and traps to avoid when talking QB
Discussing some of the basics in separating the stats and the noise from quarterback play, and why we break down the film here the way we do.
I’ve often said that the more I learn about football, the more I love it. And I assume the same is true for most Chiefs fans. And so every now and then it’s fun to discuss some common misperceptions about the game. The offseason gives us an opportunity to go a little deeper into nuances of an incredibly nuanced sport and talk about the way things work vs the way they’re often perceived. Welcome back to Football 201. In the first edition of this series, we discussed why blame/credit is often misplaced when it comes to pass protection and quarterback pressure, both with offensive linemen and defensive linemen. Today, let’s talk quarterback, one of the main characters on the field and on this site.
If I could pick one position that has been most important to the work I’ve done in this space over the last decade-plus, it would be quarterback.
I think this makes sense on a basic level. No position has more importance in the NFL, and it’s not even close. It’s also the position that is the most often broken down, debated, and generally discussed in the football world.
And despite that, it’s still probably the position that suffers from the worst analysis of any position overall. One of those reasons is almost certainly due to the sheer volume of analysis (the more people view talking about a position as a good content decision, the more “bad” analysis is going to make the rounds). Another is because of the readily available statistics related to the position makes it easy to sum up QB play into a bunch of numbers, whether it’s the more basic traditional stats (yards, TDs, INTs, Quarterback rating), the more in-depth stats (QBR, EPA/play, adjusted completion percentages, etc), or just ol’ fashioned QB winz.
Whatever the reason, there’s a LOT of bad quarterback discourse out there. I’ve written about it a great deal here and at my former stomping grounds. It’s a big reason why I try to chart and review every Patrick Mahomes game to get a real idea as to how he actually played, as opposed to relying on stats or narratives.
After our first Football 201 piece about pass protection and pass rush, enough people said thy wanted more of that sort of content that it made sense to start with the most frequently talked-about position, and one where I’ve written (in pieces here and there) a lot bout some of the common traps and pitfalls we get ensnared by as fans. So let’s talk about the quarterback position, certain mistakes to avoid when talking about it, and things to look for in order to have a better understanding of how a QB is actually playing.
I understand I’m preaching to the choir here, but let’s start with the problem of utilizing pure statistical analysis to discuss a QB’s performance over the course of a single game, stretch of games, or even entire season or two (or three). Then, we’ll talk about how people often misunderstand the concept of “open” receivers and don’t take into account the way reads work in an NFL offense, or the way defenders flow to the ball once a throw starts.
But first, we’re talking stats and how they don’t reflect QB play in a consistently accurate way, particularly in a small sample size. The reason for this is that there are a lot of things outside the quarterback’s control that affect stats. For an easy example to get things started, do you recall Week 1 of the 2023 season, when Kadarius Toney allowed a finely-placed ball to bounce off his hands… which led to it then landing right in a defender’s arms? Statistics, even the in-depth ones like EPA (Expected Points Added) per play and QBR, don’t account for that. Remember, statistics tell you the “what,” they don’t tell you the “why.”
There are hundreds (if not thousands) of examples of stats not telling you the “why.” For instance, statistical analysis of a play might tell you Mahomes threw an incomplete pass and lead to the assumption of a bad throw. Then on review…
… it’s one of the best throws you’ll ever see on a football field.
This is an older play (one of the fun things about talking about a bigger subject like this is I can go back and grab plays we’ve talked about in the past) from my “best Mahomes throws that didn’t count” pieces from a while back (worth a read if you like fun). The entire premise of that series was to note that Mahomes makes so many spectacular plays so frequently that at times they won’t count due to drops, penalties, or other mistakes outside his control.
And that’s the entire point here. This is a throw that perhaps 5 other quarterbacks on Earth would even attempt when you consider the movement, the angle, the distance, and the coverage. Mahomes can’t set his feet and “load up” to make the throw because the window to the WR is closing. He has get the ball in HOT and to a very small space, throwing off-platform and moving the other direction. When you account for all the factors here, it’s about as good a play as a QB can make. But because the ball gets dropped, it doesn’t count.
The general idea with QB statistical analysis is that all things are somewhat equal and “even out,” so it’s OK to discount stuff like this. “Every QB has passes dropped” is the response you’ll often get. While that’s true, what is NOT true is that every QB has passes like THIS get dropped. It’s also not true that QBs have passes dropped with the same frequency, at the same distances (a drop negating a 3-yard gain is much more damaging statistically than one negating a 20-yard gain), in the same game situation (a drop on 3rd down kills a drive and stops the chance to gain more stats, whereas that’s not necessarily true for a drop on 1st down), or under similar circumstances (a WR dropping an incredible throw does more to diminish the QB than a WR dropping a throw any QB could make). So a statement like “every QB has passes dropped,” while technically correct, ignores every single situational factor that actually differentiates what happened on the field.
And those are the dangerous statements to avoid when talking quarterbacks… the ones that are TECHNICALLY correct as a generalization but ignore the specifics of situation. And statements like that get made all the time.
Another statement related to stats that’s technically correct but gets specifics wrong relates to how much QBs benefit from their surroundings… or how all somehow benefit equally. It’s some version of “every QB benefits from YAC,” or “every QB benefits from schemed-up plays.” Keep those phrases in mind as we walk through what it means for a QB to benefit from his surroundings.
One thing we all know is that not all yards are created equal. A 2-yard screen pass can result in 75 yards and a touchdown while a gorgeous 15-yard out from the opposite hash can result in an incomplete pass if the receiver doesn’t do his job. To use more recent examples… according to the box score, Mahomes hitting a holy-crap-wide-open Xavier Worthy on a throw hundreds and hundreds of QB’s could make in their sleep is better than a play like this:
