Deep trouble; Reviewing every deep pass attempt by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

A look at deep ball attempt 30+ yards in the air is telling as to what is ailing Kansas City's formerly high-flying offense.

Sometimes, in order to do this job well, you have to be just a LITTLE bit crazy. Maybe a lot. I’d prefer not to give it much thought.

So let’s get right down to it… I reviewed and charted every single passing attempt by Patrick Mahomes that traveled over 30 yards in the air, because I am not well. And I think there’s some valuable information there that explains a chunk of why the Chiefs are struggling in a way that hasn’t yet been thoroughly explored (which is, of course, actually why I do this, to find answers to questions I have that I can’t just leave alone. Which may be the same thing as being crazy).

(Before I get into that, though, happy Thanksgiving! I’m quite thankful to be a Chiefs fan during the most successful run in franchise history. And that stays true even during tough times (and articles)).

It’s no secret that the Chiefs offense has not been nearly as good (or consistent) as in past years of the Patrick Mahomes era. I’ve written about it from multiple perspectives, and even earlier this week dove into how some mistakes from the receiving weapons cost us (and Mahomes) another signature Mahomes moment.

One thing that I’ve noticed in recent weeks, though, beyond the arguments about receivers vs pass protection vs Mahomes being “primary” culprits, is that defenses are starting to play the Chiefs differently. For multiple weeks now, teams have shown more of a willingness to play more middle field closed coverages (a single defender in the middle of the field rather than 2 deep) than they have since… 2018? They’ve also shown more of a willingness to play cover 0 (no safeties over the top) and attack with aggressive blitzes while playing man.

There seems to be only one reasonable explanation for this; That teams don’t fear getting beat over the top anymore. This culminated in the 2nd half against the Eagles, in which Philly played single-high or even cover 0 on multiple snaps and the Chiefs couldn’t make them pay.

With some of these struggles, I figured it was time to look at every single passing attempt with 30+ air yards (note, that is not the same as yards past the line of scrimmage, but how many yards the ball travels from Mahomes to the point it lands) to see what exactly is ailing the deep passing game. There are a lot of theories out there. Is Mahomes’ accuracy bad? Is the protection not holding up? Are the receivers in the wrong spot? Are drops costing them that much?

I created a little spreadsheet showing when each play occurred, the down and distance, the target, the result, and the primary “culprit” behind incomplete or other failed deep shots. Let’s look at those numbers, then talk about a few general takeaways and whether this is a fixable issue for 2023.