Chiefs cheat code; Examining 13 personnel and how Kansas City weaponized it in 2022
Chiefs cheat code; Examining 13 personnel and how Kansas City weaponized it in 2022
Taking a closer look at a personnel package Andy Reid used to break the league last year, and how it could be utilized even more in 2023.
Do you remember when the NFL “broke” Patrick Mahomes?
You may not, because that sort of foolish talk only lasted for a few short weeks in 2021. To take a brief trip down memory lane, teams started playing highly conservative shells against Mahomes and the Chiefs, taking away the deep shots they’d favored for years in their offense. Defenses combined this with a refusal to blitz and provide Mahomes with openings in the secondary. The strategy was to force Reid’s offense to win on long drives without any big plays.
For a brief time period, this stymied Kansas City’s historic offense. Until it didn’t, and the Chiefs rolled through the remainder of the 2021 season as one of the best offenses in football. And in 2022, they continued that trend, finishing the season as the most efficient offense in the league by a country mile despite lacking a true number 1 wideout. They learned to win using death by a thousand paper cuts as opposed to big plays, with their average touchdown pass traveling 4.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in 2022 (that number was 17.3 in 2019).
How did they do it? Well, there were a number of factors, but one of the most important ones was Kansas City deciding to lean into “bigger” personnel. This trend started midseason in 2021, and the Chiefs finished the season utilizing 12 (1 RB, 2 TE) or 13 (1 RB, 3 TE) personnel 24.4% of their snaps. In 2022, they leaned even more into this trend, with 38.5% of their snaps being in those heavier looks (10% of the time it was 13 personnel, double what they did in 2021).
(as a side note, this app created by our friend Joseph Hefner with
is terrific for breaking down personnel alignments and success from said alignments)Mahomes and company were particularly successful out of 13 personnel, utilizing a combination of Travis Kelce and Noah Gray alongside either Jody Fortson or Blake Bell (depending on what point of the season we’re talking about). And that’s what I’d like to talk about, as I think it’s going to play a larger role in 2023.
Today, we’re going to look at how the Chiefs weaponized 13 personnel in 2022, how it forced defenses to make “wrong” personnel and alignment decisions, and why this next season could feature Reid leaning even harder into this personnel grouping.
The Chiefs averaged an astounding 0.35 EPA per play out of 13 personnel with a relatively small sample size of 127 plays). For frame of reference, Kansas City’s offense overall led the league by a WIDE margin averaging 0.179 EPA/play. In other words, 13 personnel looks for Kansas City were the most successful version of the best offense in the league, and it wasn’t particularly close.
Why does it work? Basically, it’s a matter for making opponents wrong no matter what they do.