Factor in what happens at the end of the league year if the entire cap does not get spent. Teams can move unspent cap to the following year.
Chiefs might be better off kicking a bonus to Pat at the end of the year to retire future cap hits in the current year. Lots of ways to skin the cat with this kind of long-term flexibility.
I'm not sure whether they can quite do it that way (the CBA has some pretty specific guidelines from what I understand to avoid teams skirting the cap directly), but they definitely have a lot of flexibility in how to pay it out!
The number of Top QB trades in recent years is gonna throw off the average of Top 8 QB cap hits for 2021 and 2022. For instance, Matt Ryan has a $40.5 mil(!) dead cap hit for the Falcons this season. The Lions ate $19 mil in dead cap for Stafford in 2021 and the Eagles ate $33.8 mil in dead cap for 2021. Those numbers aren't included in the Spotrac yearly cap hit since those aren't the cap hits for the QBs current team. It would be interesting to see the overall Top 8 average with those included even though it might only change it $5+ mil.
Always knew this deal would be a bargain eventually.
A bit off topic, but I will beat my drum and ask would you PLEASE write an article on the "Mahomes Effect" for receivers at some point? Now that Tyreek is off to his new team (not to mention Sammy Watkins) there should be some great material to base an analysis on down the road. I truly believe receivers (Like Ju Ju) come here to get a bump so they can get a better contract down the road. Would love to see your thoughts and analysis.
Again, love your work!! Its never "I say it so its true", you always back your comments up with real numbers. Thank you!!
That's a tough thing to quantify so early in his career tbh. We don't have a ton of info on receivers having good samples sizes in and out of the system with Patrick. I do think that they have a shot at a statistical bump, but I don't know how I'd prove it :(
Great analysis - So - given that PM continues elite play over the next several years, at what point does it become necessary to renegotiate his deal. I know that total salary is distinct from cap-hits - but it doesn't seem plausible that PM plays in several years as his salary becomes average among QBs as opposed to elite. Thoughts? How would that scenario change the outlook??
I think that depends on the parties involved. I'm curious if he's fine letting his contract become average or below average among top 8 guys, though I'm guessing he wouldn't let it go much further.
There's a reason they signed such a long deal IMO, and it'll work as a parameter of his inevitable re-working of the deal (if it is indeed inevitable). I think a lot will depend on how the relationship between Mahomes and the team does. If it stays good, that will be a big factor.
Agree with that ... On a somewhat related note, The Chiefs have the best locker room arguably in the league, in part due to having been a solid winner in the PM era. We have yet to experience a down year w PM, yet. Everyone should be confident at this point in 2022, but I think we could easily be playing for a wildcard this year, given the competition. I think BV really made offseason moves that set up 2023+, much more than 2022. I think the bet is that we can scrape through this year as best we can and then be in a stronger position going forward.
There hasn't been a true down year since Andy Reid arrived. The Alex years set up a nice locker room for Patrick to step into, which is not often the case for a top 10 pick. (And Kelce was still "growing up" in those early years.)
As long as Andy Reid is the coach and Patrick Mahomes plays uninjured in most games, there's no reason the Chiefs will ever need to take a step back (except on paper or power polls).
Jun 1, 2022·edited Jun 1, 2022Liked by Seth Keysor
But...but.....Everybody.......outside of KC.....says that his contract will ruin our chances at a Superbowl......EVERYBODY!!!!.......EVERYBODY can't be wrong....can they?.....<sarcasm mode off>
1) Even when the deal was signed, I read many laments from other NFL executives about the team-friendly nature of the contract. It was clear even then how well it would age.
2) In 2024, Russell Wilson will need a new deal, and the 2021 class of QBs (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones) will be eligible to sign extensions. I'm guessing that at least two players in this group will get top of market deals.
3) While a franchise QB playing on a rookie contract remains the best value in football, the 2d best value has to be Mahomes signed through 2031. I'll be interested to see whether/when the Chiefs and Mahomes renegotiate his contract.
4) I'm really grateful that both Mahomes and Kelce factored in team and career legacies when they signed their extensions. Every bit helps.
Your second point is exceptionally well-made, and adds to the list of what will make the market go even more insane. I definitely think Mahomes and KC will re-work the deal at some point, but I assume he was willing to sign such a long deal for a reason.
To your first point, I think you're right on in terms of how agents viewed this deal as well. I heard whispers (no idea how true) that agents weren't thrilled with the deal.
Great breakdown getting to the point of the contract Seth. It's like you should be a lawyer or something...
That said, here is the risk reward for both the Chiefs and Mahomes which I believe they crushed. When do fans (and owners as far as that goes) bitch about long term big contracts? When the player is no longer worth the money in comparison to others. See Frank Clark (I think he was worth it by the way - 2 Super Bowl appearances). The Chiefs wisely are committing the success of the team to Mahomes. Mahomes is locking himself into great wealth (this doesn't even include the endorsements etc) with an organization he is comfortable with and no hassles constantly with contract security. Why do teams like the shorter deals even if it costs them more? If the player busts it's a short term issue. Move on. Again, see Frank Clark. I also think that's why you have only seen one other long deal like Mahomes - Josh Allen. These two are the only two players in the league I would take that risk for and as a fan of football, am so glad they will play against each other most every year. The Chiefs drafted wisely with Mahomes and went all in on him. I am sure glad the Chiefs and Patrick committed to each other.
I think you make a good point as to why teams would shy away from longer team deals in terms of risk. That said, I think a lot of teams would go long-term (with some injury protections) on a QB if the player was willing to do it (with about 8-10 QB's in the league, the rest are... well, they can play but there are questions).
I definitely agree that it's good business to completely go all in on Mahomes.
QB training has become so advanced and individualized that injury risk and physical decline don't scare teams the way it once did. Combined with the increase in size of the top QBs and advances in ortho treatment/recovery, particularly for knees, and teams can talk themselves into going pretty far out on the branch. Mahomes entered the league with a Brady-esque level of sophistication and commitment to preparing and protecting his body. He wouldn't have a ring without it.
I'm curious if he wants to play for as long as Brady is (and the direction Rodgers is heading as well). These guys are built to compete, but man, I can't imagine that fire burning as hot at 40.
Particularly if he has $2BN+ in the bank, as I fully expect based on how he's approaching his off-field business. As with others on the all-time lists, I have to think it'll depend on injuries and overall physical decline curve. Brees and Rivers would still be out there if their bodies were willing. You can bet both Burkholder and Stroupe are going to be paying a lot of attention to that foot in the years ahead.
Seth, We all remember when PM15's contract set the market. As you point out, more money in the market year after year pushes the top of the market higher. Players get new contracts because their old ones expire but also because the players want new deals because the market has moved and they believe they are underpaid with respect to their peers.
So, I guess I have to question whether PM15 ever plays out his contract in it's entirety. I'd be surprised if he made it through his 7th year without an extension to push him back to the top of the market.
I'd be surprised if he played it out in its entirety, but I doubt he would've been willing to sign such a long deal if he didn't intend on letting it ride for at least half of it.
So now we need to be concerned that Jasmine is stuck in some Stepford Wives scenario with Seth's pearl clutching. Blink twice if you need help, Jasmine...
The Football Show with Schwartz and Mays touched on QB play yesterday. It seems some teams may have finally learned their lesson on QB pay and it may ve more tiered moving forward. If you look at the examples, there is no way most of the guys on those lists should be making that much. Check out the show if you haven't. I may disagree with Mays a lot, but Schwartz is brilliant.
Thanks for the great financial insight, Seth! This seems like a terriffic long term deal for the Chief's and their salary cap. However, I can't help but wonder if down the road Mahomes will become disgruntled if he is the best QB in the league making the 16th highest salary and the Jared Goff / Jameiis Winston's of the NFL are making as much/ more than him. Seth, do you know if the Chiefs could "bonus" him if they sensed this was happening rather than having to tear up his contract and re-do it? I Can't even believe I'm worrying Mahomes might be "underpaid" in the future, LOL
We are very fortunate that Mahomes is surrounded by people who see the big picture, and that he hired an agent in Leigh Steinberg who can monetize the visibility from playing deep in the postseason vs. making everything about the contract. Evidence the golf match in progress as I write this.
The contract will be modified several times before it's said and done, but Mahomes has approached his relationship with the team and the city as a 20-year partnership from the moment he was drafted, and behaved like an equity investor in the team. Veach (and Hunt) had better not get cute or take that goodwill for granted.
Mahomes has definitely built his brand with a long game in mind. Everything he does feels intentional, like having ownership in a private jet company so he can travel whenever he wants, lol.
Leigh Steinberg has a great eye for aligning brands and athletes, and that jet deal is a perfect example of how he's building a life for the long run. He can easily move between KC and his base in Dallas, and disappear to Vegas when he wants to blow off steam in a protected bubble like Tiger/MJ.
Whataburger is going to be a fascinating test of his brand power, too, as he could easily have 50-100+ locations over a decade in what could be a standalone $1BN+ enterprise.
It's also savvy that he bought undeveloped land w/n an existing community, which will avoid the massive expense of 24 hr private security like he'd have in Mission Hills or similar. Learning as he goes, for sure. The guy gets it.
Regardless of the future market value of Pat's contract, it was forward-thinking and worth every penny at signing. It basically guaranteed that he would a Chief through the prime of his career. To secure the best player in football for that length of time was brilliant.
Personally, I think Pat shares one important trait with Tom Brady, and that is their intense competitive nature. Like Brady, Pat's desire to win outweighs his ego. For many years in NE, Brady played on contracts far below his market value relative to other QBs to help the Patriots field a competitive team capable of winning every year. It's how they sustained a dynasty for nearly two decades. I predict the same for Pat and the Chiefs.
As the QB salaries around him escalate in future years, the Chiefs would undoubtedly rework the contract to ensure his salary remains fair. And just like when the contract was originally signed, it will be worth every penny.
is pearl-clutching too old a saying now????? Don't age me even more!
David, I'm old AF and had to look up clutched pearls.
DANGIT people!
Factor in what happens at the end of the league year if the entire cap does not get spent. Teams can move unspent cap to the following year.
Chiefs might be better off kicking a bonus to Pat at the end of the year to retire future cap hits in the current year. Lots of ways to skin the cat with this kind of long-term flexibility.
I'm not sure whether they can quite do it that way (the CBA has some pretty specific guidelines from what I understand to avoid teams skirting the cap directly), but they definitely have a lot of flexibility in how to pay it out!
The number of Top QB trades in recent years is gonna throw off the average of Top 8 QB cap hits for 2021 and 2022. For instance, Matt Ryan has a $40.5 mil(!) dead cap hit for the Falcons this season. The Lions ate $19 mil in dead cap for Stafford in 2021 and the Eagles ate $33.8 mil in dead cap for 2021. Those numbers aren't included in the Spotrac yearly cap hit since those aren't the cap hits for the QBs current team. It would be interesting to see the overall Top 8 average with those included even though it might only change it $5+ mil.
That's a very sound point!
This is really helpful stuff, Seth. Thank you!
Glad you enjoyed!
Always knew this deal would be a bargain eventually.
A bit off topic, but I will beat my drum and ask would you PLEASE write an article on the "Mahomes Effect" for receivers at some point? Now that Tyreek is off to his new team (not to mention Sammy Watkins) there should be some great material to base an analysis on down the road. I truly believe receivers (Like Ju Ju) come here to get a bump so they can get a better contract down the road. Would love to see your thoughts and analysis.
Again, love your work!! Its never "I say it so its true", you always back your comments up with real numbers. Thank you!!
That's a tough thing to quantify so early in his career tbh. We don't have a ton of info on receivers having good samples sizes in and out of the system with Patrick. I do think that they have a shot at a statistical bump, but I don't know how I'd prove it :(
Great analysis - So - given that PM continues elite play over the next several years, at what point does it become necessary to renegotiate his deal. I know that total salary is distinct from cap-hits - but it doesn't seem plausible that PM plays in several years as his salary becomes average among QBs as opposed to elite. Thoughts? How would that scenario change the outlook??
I think that depends on the parties involved. I'm curious if he's fine letting his contract become average or below average among top 8 guys, though I'm guessing he wouldn't let it go much further.
There's a reason they signed such a long deal IMO, and it'll work as a parameter of his inevitable re-working of the deal (if it is indeed inevitable). I think a lot will depend on how the relationship between Mahomes and the team does. If it stays good, that will be a big factor.
Agree with that ... On a somewhat related note, The Chiefs have the best locker room arguably in the league, in part due to having been a solid winner in the PM era. We have yet to experience a down year w PM, yet. Everyone should be confident at this point in 2022, but I think we could easily be playing for a wildcard this year, given the competition. I think BV really made offseason moves that set up 2023+, much more than 2022. I think the bet is that we can scrape through this year as best we can and then be in a stronger position going forward.
There hasn't been a true down year since Andy Reid arrived. The Alex years set up a nice locker room for Patrick to step into, which is not often the case for a top 10 pick. (And Kelce was still "growing up" in those early years.)
As long as Andy Reid is the coach and Patrick Mahomes plays uninjured in most games, there's no reason the Chiefs will ever need to take a step back (except on paper or power polls).
2022, on defense, feels like a soft reset. It's going to be the most important year of Spags' time with the Chiefs by far.
But...but.....Everybody.......outside of KC.....says that his contract will ruin our chances at a Superbowl......EVERYBODY!!!!.......EVERYBODY can't be wrong....can they?.....<sarcasm mode off>
Memory works funny, and mine is distinctly different than yours (see below). LOL!
I was talking about the fans of other teams.....especially the ones in the AFC West...I should have been more specific
Only usually
1) Even when the deal was signed, I read many laments from other NFL executives about the team-friendly nature of the contract. It was clear even then how well it would age.
2) In 2024, Russell Wilson will need a new deal, and the 2021 class of QBs (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones) will be eligible to sign extensions. I'm guessing that at least two players in this group will get top of market deals.
3) While a franchise QB playing on a rookie contract remains the best value in football, the 2d best value has to be Mahomes signed through 2031. I'll be interested to see whether/when the Chiefs and Mahomes renegotiate his contract.
4) I'm really grateful that both Mahomes and Kelce factored in team and career legacies when they signed their extensions. Every bit helps.
5) What's the year when Mahomes falls entirely out of the top ten in cap hits? 2026, when the hit is just $41 million?
Your second point is exceptionally well-made, and adds to the list of what will make the market go even more insane. I definitely think Mahomes and KC will re-work the deal at some point, but I assume he was willing to sign such a long deal for a reason.
To your first point, I think you're right on in terms of how agents viewed this deal as well. I heard whispers (no idea how true) that agents weren't thrilled with the deal.
Great breakdown getting to the point of the contract Seth. It's like you should be a lawyer or something...
That said, here is the risk reward for both the Chiefs and Mahomes which I believe they crushed. When do fans (and owners as far as that goes) bitch about long term big contracts? When the player is no longer worth the money in comparison to others. See Frank Clark (I think he was worth it by the way - 2 Super Bowl appearances). The Chiefs wisely are committing the success of the team to Mahomes. Mahomes is locking himself into great wealth (this doesn't even include the endorsements etc) with an organization he is comfortable with and no hassles constantly with contract security. Why do teams like the shorter deals even if it costs them more? If the player busts it's a short term issue. Move on. Again, see Frank Clark. I also think that's why you have only seen one other long deal like Mahomes - Josh Allen. These two are the only two players in the league I would take that risk for and as a fan of football, am so glad they will play against each other most every year. The Chiefs drafted wisely with Mahomes and went all in on him. I am sure glad the Chiefs and Patrick committed to each other.
I think you make a good point as to why teams would shy away from longer team deals in terms of risk. That said, I think a lot of teams would go long-term (with some injury protections) on a QB if the player was willing to do it (with about 8-10 QB's in the league, the rest are... well, they can play but there are questions).
I definitely agree that it's good business to completely go all in on Mahomes.
QB training has become so advanced and individualized that injury risk and physical decline don't scare teams the way it once did. Combined with the increase in size of the top QBs and advances in ortho treatment/recovery, particularly for knees, and teams can talk themselves into going pretty far out on the branch. Mahomes entered the league with a Brady-esque level of sophistication and commitment to preparing and protecting his body. He wouldn't have a ring without it.
I'm curious if he wants to play for as long as Brady is (and the direction Rodgers is heading as well). These guys are built to compete, but man, I can't imagine that fire burning as hot at 40.
Particularly if he has $2BN+ in the bank, as I fully expect based on how he's approaching his off-field business. As with others on the all-time lists, I have to think it'll depend on injuries and overall physical decline curve. Brees and Rivers would still be out there if their bodies were willing. You can bet both Burkholder and Stroupe are going to be paying a lot of attention to that foot in the years ahead.
Absolutely true. Not all of these guys are going to be able to go that long! Manning's arm failed him as well.
Seth, We all remember when PM15's contract set the market. As you point out, more money in the market year after year pushes the top of the market higher. Players get new contracts because their old ones expire but also because the players want new deals because the market has moved and they believe they are underpaid with respect to their peers.
So, I guess I have to question whether PM15 ever plays out his contract in it's entirety. I'd be surprised if he made it through his 7th year without an extension to push him back to the top of the market.
What do you think?
I'd be surprised if he played it out in its entirety, but I doubt he would've been willing to sign such a long deal if he didn't intend on letting it ride for at least half of it.
So now we need to be concerned that Jasmine is stuck in some Stepford Wives scenario with Seth's pearl clutching. Blink twice if you need help, Jasmine...
The Football Show with Schwartz and Mays touched on QB play yesterday. It seems some teams may have finally learned their lesson on QB pay and it may ve more tiered moving forward. If you look at the examples, there is no way most of the guys on those lists should be making that much. Check out the show if you haven't. I may disagree with Mays a lot, but Schwartz is brilliant.
They have a great show, and Mitch is always terrific (I like Mays and Tice as well a great deal, for what that's worth!)
I knew how this contract would be good for us but it is so much better than I thought it was.
Absolutely!
My head is spinning, but I get it. No small wonder that Andy brought Veach with him. The Capmeisters!
This is all Brandt Tilis I'm guessing, he's the cap guy!
Thanks for the great financial insight, Seth! This seems like a terriffic long term deal for the Chief's and their salary cap. However, I can't help but wonder if down the road Mahomes will become disgruntled if he is the best QB in the league making the 16th highest salary and the Jared Goff / Jameiis Winston's of the NFL are making as much/ more than him. Seth, do you know if the Chiefs could "bonus" him if they sensed this was happening rather than having to tear up his contract and re-do it? I Can't even believe I'm worrying Mahomes might be "underpaid" in the future, LOL
Glad you enjoyed! I was worried about being a little too deep in the weeds there with the financials, as fascinating as I find them!
I have absolutely no idea how Mahomes will view all that, and they may well re-do the deal with multiple years left!
We are very fortunate that Mahomes is surrounded by people who see the big picture, and that he hired an agent in Leigh Steinberg who can monetize the visibility from playing deep in the postseason vs. making everything about the contract. Evidence the golf match in progress as I write this.
The contract will be modified several times before it's said and done, but Mahomes has approached his relationship with the team and the city as a 20-year partnership from the moment he was drafted, and behaved like an equity investor in the team. Veach (and Hunt) had better not get cute or take that goodwill for granted.
Mahomes has definitely built his brand with a long game in mind. Everything he does feels intentional, like having ownership in a private jet company so he can travel whenever he wants, lol.
Leigh Steinberg has a great eye for aligning brands and athletes, and that jet deal is a perfect example of how he's building a life for the long run. He can easily move between KC and his base in Dallas, and disappear to Vegas when he wants to blow off steam in a protected bubble like Tiger/MJ.
Whataburger is going to be a fascinating test of his brand power, too, as he could easily have 50-100+ locations over a decade in what could be a standalone $1BN+ enterprise.
It's also savvy that he bought undeveloped land w/n an existing community, which will avoid the massive expense of 24 hr private security like he'd have in Mission Hills or similar. Learning as he goes, for sure. The guy gets it.
Regardless of the future market value of Pat's contract, it was forward-thinking and worth every penny at signing. It basically guaranteed that he would a Chief through the prime of his career. To secure the best player in football for that length of time was brilliant.
Personally, I think Pat shares one important trait with Tom Brady, and that is their intense competitive nature. Like Brady, Pat's desire to win outweighs his ego. For many years in NE, Brady played on contracts far below his market value relative to other QBs to help the Patriots field a competitive team capable of winning every year. It's how they sustained a dynasty for nearly two decades. I predict the same for Pat and the Chiefs.
As the QB salaries around him escalate in future years, the Chiefs would undoubtedly rework the contract to ensure his salary remains fair. And just like when the contract was originally signed, it will be worth every penny.
Definitely worth every penny!