Factor in what happens at the end of the league year if the entire cap does not get spent. Teams can move unspent cap to the following year.
Chiefs might be better off kicking a bonus to Pat at the end of the year to retire future cap hits in the current year. Lots of ways to skin the cat with this kind of long-term flexibility.
The number of Top QB trades in recent years is gonna throw off the average of Top 8 QB cap hits for 2021 and 2022. For instance, Matt Ryan has a $40.5 mil(!) dead cap hit for the Falcons this season. The Lions ate $19 mil in dead cap for Stafford in 2021 and the Eagles ate $33.8 mil in dead cap for 2021. Those numbers aren't included in the Spotrac yearly cap hit since those aren't the cap hits for the QBs current team. It would be interesting to see the overall Top 8 average with those included even though it might only change it $5+ mil.
Always knew this deal would be a bargain eventually.
A bit off topic, but I will beat my drum and ask would you PLEASE write an article on the "Mahomes Effect" for receivers at some point? Now that Tyreek is off to his new team (not to mention Sammy Watkins) there should be some great material to base an analysis on down the road. I truly believe receivers (Like Ju Ju) come here to get a bump so they can get a better contract down the road. Would love to see your thoughts and analysis.
Again, love your work!! Its never "I say it so its true", you always back your comments up with real numbers. Thank you!!
Great analysis - So - given that PM continues elite play over the next several years, at what point does it become necessary to renegotiate his deal. I know that total salary is distinct from cap-hits - but it doesn't seem plausible that PM plays in several years as his salary becomes average among QBs as opposed to elite. Thoughts? How would that scenario change the outlook??
Jun 1, 2022·edited Jun 1, 2022Liked by Seth Keysor
But...but.....Everybody.......outside of KC.....says that his contract will ruin our chances at a Superbowl......EVERYBODY!!!!.......EVERYBODY can't be wrong....can they?.....<sarcasm mode off>
1) Even when the deal was signed, I read many laments from other NFL executives about the team-friendly nature of the contract. It was clear even then how well it would age.
2) In 2024, Russell Wilson will need a new deal, and the 2021 class of QBs (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones) will be eligible to sign extensions. I'm guessing that at least two players in this group will get top of market deals.
3) While a franchise QB playing on a rookie contract remains the best value in football, the 2d best value has to be Mahomes signed through 2031. I'll be interested to see whether/when the Chiefs and Mahomes renegotiate his contract.
4) I'm really grateful that both Mahomes and Kelce factored in team and career legacies when they signed their extensions. Every bit helps.
Great breakdown getting to the point of the contract Seth. It's like you should be a lawyer or something...
That said, here is the risk reward for both the Chiefs and Mahomes which I believe they crushed. When do fans (and owners as far as that goes) bitch about long term big contracts? When the player is no longer worth the money in comparison to others. See Frank Clark (I think he was worth it by the way - 2 Super Bowl appearances). The Chiefs wisely are committing the success of the team to Mahomes. Mahomes is locking himself into great wealth (this doesn't even include the endorsements etc) with an organization he is comfortable with and no hassles constantly with contract security. Why do teams like the shorter deals even if it costs them more? If the player busts it's a short term issue. Move on. Again, see Frank Clark. I also think that's why you have only seen one other long deal like Mahomes - Josh Allen. These two are the only two players in the league I would take that risk for and as a fan of football, am so glad they will play against each other most every year. The Chiefs drafted wisely with Mahomes and went all in on him. I am sure glad the Chiefs and Patrick committed to each other.
Seth, We all remember when PM15's contract set the market. As you point out, more money in the market year after year pushes the top of the market higher. Players get new contracts because their old ones expire but also because the players want new deals because the market has moved and they believe they are underpaid with respect to their peers.
So, I guess I have to question whether PM15 ever plays out his contract in it's entirety. I'd be surprised if he made it through his 7th year without an extension to push him back to the top of the market.
So now we need to be concerned that Jasmine is stuck in some Stepford Wives scenario with Seth's pearl clutching. Blink twice if you need help, Jasmine...
The Football Show with Schwartz and Mays touched on QB play yesterday. It seems some teams may have finally learned their lesson on QB pay and it may ve more tiered moving forward. If you look at the examples, there is no way most of the guys on those lists should be making that much. Check out the show if you haven't. I may disagree with Mays a lot, but Schwartz is brilliant.
Thanks for the great financial insight, Seth! This seems like a terriffic long term deal for the Chief's and their salary cap. However, I can't help but wonder if down the road Mahomes will become disgruntled if he is the best QB in the league making the 16th highest salary and the Jared Goff / Jameiis Winston's of the NFL are making as much/ more than him. Seth, do you know if the Chiefs could "bonus" him if they sensed this was happening rather than having to tear up his contract and re-do it? I Can't even believe I'm worrying Mahomes might be "underpaid" in the future, LOL
We are very fortunate that Mahomes is surrounded by people who see the big picture, and that he hired an agent in Leigh Steinberg who can monetize the visibility from playing deep in the postseason vs. making everything about the contract. Evidence the golf match in progress as I write this.
The contract will be modified several times before it's said and done, but Mahomes has approached his relationship with the team and the city as a 20-year partnership from the moment he was drafted, and behaved like an equity investor in the team. Veach (and Hunt) had better not get cute or take that goodwill for granted.
Regardless of the future market value of Pat's contract, it was forward-thinking and worth every penny at signing. It basically guaranteed that he would a Chief through the prime of his career. To secure the best player in football for that length of time was brilliant.
Personally, I think Pat shares one important trait with Tom Brady, and that is their intense competitive nature. Like Brady, Pat's desire to win outweighs his ego. For many years in NE, Brady played on contracts far below his market value relative to other QBs to help the Patriots field a competitive team capable of winning every year. It's how they sustained a dynasty for nearly two decades. I predict the same for Pat and the Chiefs.
As the QB salaries around him escalate in future years, the Chiefs would undoubtedly rework the contract to ensure his salary remains fair. And just like when the contract was originally signed, it will be worth every penny.
Factor in what happens at the end of the league year if the entire cap does not get spent. Teams can move unspent cap to the following year.
Chiefs might be better off kicking a bonus to Pat at the end of the year to retire future cap hits in the current year. Lots of ways to skin the cat with this kind of long-term flexibility.
The number of Top QB trades in recent years is gonna throw off the average of Top 8 QB cap hits for 2021 and 2022. For instance, Matt Ryan has a $40.5 mil(!) dead cap hit for the Falcons this season. The Lions ate $19 mil in dead cap for Stafford in 2021 and the Eagles ate $33.8 mil in dead cap for 2021. Those numbers aren't included in the Spotrac yearly cap hit since those aren't the cap hits for the QBs current team. It would be interesting to see the overall Top 8 average with those included even though it might only change it $5+ mil.
This is really helpful stuff, Seth. Thank you!
Always knew this deal would be a bargain eventually.
A bit off topic, but I will beat my drum and ask would you PLEASE write an article on the "Mahomes Effect" for receivers at some point? Now that Tyreek is off to his new team (not to mention Sammy Watkins) there should be some great material to base an analysis on down the road. I truly believe receivers (Like Ju Ju) come here to get a bump so they can get a better contract down the road. Would love to see your thoughts and analysis.
Again, love your work!! Its never "I say it so its true", you always back your comments up with real numbers. Thank you!!
Great analysis - So - given that PM continues elite play over the next several years, at what point does it become necessary to renegotiate his deal. I know that total salary is distinct from cap-hits - but it doesn't seem plausible that PM plays in several years as his salary becomes average among QBs as opposed to elite. Thoughts? How would that scenario change the outlook??
But...but.....Everybody.......outside of KC.....says that his contract will ruin our chances at a Superbowl......EVERYBODY!!!!.......EVERYBODY can't be wrong....can they?.....<sarcasm mode off>
1) Even when the deal was signed, I read many laments from other NFL executives about the team-friendly nature of the contract. It was clear even then how well it would age.
2) In 2024, Russell Wilson will need a new deal, and the 2021 class of QBs (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones) will be eligible to sign extensions. I'm guessing that at least two players in this group will get top of market deals.
3) While a franchise QB playing on a rookie contract remains the best value in football, the 2d best value has to be Mahomes signed through 2031. I'll be interested to see whether/when the Chiefs and Mahomes renegotiate his contract.
4) I'm really grateful that both Mahomes and Kelce factored in team and career legacies when they signed their extensions. Every bit helps.
Great breakdown getting to the point of the contract Seth. It's like you should be a lawyer or something...
That said, here is the risk reward for both the Chiefs and Mahomes which I believe they crushed. When do fans (and owners as far as that goes) bitch about long term big contracts? When the player is no longer worth the money in comparison to others. See Frank Clark (I think he was worth it by the way - 2 Super Bowl appearances). The Chiefs wisely are committing the success of the team to Mahomes. Mahomes is locking himself into great wealth (this doesn't even include the endorsements etc) with an organization he is comfortable with and no hassles constantly with contract security. Why do teams like the shorter deals even if it costs them more? If the player busts it's a short term issue. Move on. Again, see Frank Clark. I also think that's why you have only seen one other long deal like Mahomes - Josh Allen. These two are the only two players in the league I would take that risk for and as a fan of football, am so glad they will play against each other most every year. The Chiefs drafted wisely with Mahomes and went all in on him. I am sure glad the Chiefs and Patrick committed to each other.
Seth, We all remember when PM15's contract set the market. As you point out, more money in the market year after year pushes the top of the market higher. Players get new contracts because their old ones expire but also because the players want new deals because the market has moved and they believe they are underpaid with respect to their peers.
So, I guess I have to question whether PM15 ever plays out his contract in it's entirety. I'd be surprised if he made it through his 7th year without an extension to push him back to the top of the market.
What do you think?
So now we need to be concerned that Jasmine is stuck in some Stepford Wives scenario with Seth's pearl clutching. Blink twice if you need help, Jasmine...
The Football Show with Schwartz and Mays touched on QB play yesterday. It seems some teams may have finally learned their lesson on QB pay and it may ve more tiered moving forward. If you look at the examples, there is no way most of the guys on those lists should be making that much. Check out the show if you haven't. I may disagree with Mays a lot, but Schwartz is brilliant.
I knew how this contract would be good for us but it is so much better than I thought it was.
My head is spinning, but I get it. No small wonder that Andy brought Veach with him. The Capmeisters!
Thanks for the great financial insight, Seth! This seems like a terriffic long term deal for the Chief's and their salary cap. However, I can't help but wonder if down the road Mahomes will become disgruntled if he is the best QB in the league making the 16th highest salary and the Jared Goff / Jameiis Winston's of the NFL are making as much/ more than him. Seth, do you know if the Chiefs could "bonus" him if they sensed this was happening rather than having to tear up his contract and re-do it? I Can't even believe I'm worrying Mahomes might be "underpaid" in the future, LOL
We are very fortunate that Mahomes is surrounded by people who see the big picture, and that he hired an agent in Leigh Steinberg who can monetize the visibility from playing deep in the postseason vs. making everything about the contract. Evidence the golf match in progress as I write this.
The contract will be modified several times before it's said and done, but Mahomes has approached his relationship with the team and the city as a 20-year partnership from the moment he was drafted, and behaved like an equity investor in the team. Veach (and Hunt) had better not get cute or take that goodwill for granted.
Regardless of the future market value of Pat's contract, it was forward-thinking and worth every penny at signing. It basically guaranteed that he would a Chief through the prime of his career. To secure the best player in football for that length of time was brilliant.
Personally, I think Pat shares one important trait with Tom Brady, and that is their intense competitive nature. Like Brady, Pat's desire to win outweighs his ego. For many years in NE, Brady played on contracts far below his market value relative to other QBs to help the Patriots field a competitive team capable of winning every year. It's how they sustained a dynasty for nearly two decades. I predict the same for Pat and the Chiefs.
As the QB salaries around him escalate in future years, the Chiefs would undoubtedly rework the contract to ensure his salary remains fair. And just like when the contract was originally signed, it will be worth every penny.