Andy Reid lets Patrick Mahomes finish the Buccaneers

Rather than trying to not lose, Reid elected to try and win the game outright Sunday

There are a number of criticisms that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has been subjected to over the years. Clock management, calling too many passes (remember, before analytics became mainstream Reid was criticized for this for YEARS), not being aggressive enough with his play calling with a lead, freezing in big moments… some of the criticisms have been unfair, some of them more valid.

But one thing that he’s been consistently criticized for during his time coaching the Chiefs, particularly since Patrick Mahomes took the helm, was playing it a little too safe when “protecting a lead” late in games. The basic premise is that Reid tried to not lose games rather than win them, often choosing to run the ball and try to let the clock win the game for Kansas City.

After the Chiefs sprinted out to a 17-0 lead against the Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon the game got tight (though not really as close as one might think, looking at the win probability chart. Emotions alter how “close” we think a game was) in the 4th quarter. The Buccaneers were able to score to pull within 3 points with a shade over four minutes left in the game. With Tampa Bay in possession of a pair of timeouts, the Chiefs gaining at least one first down was crucial to how likely a comeback would be.

This is one of those situations that coaches tend to become overly conservative, and simply start playing to the clock rather than trying to move the ball. The easiest (and safest) way to bleed the clock is to run the ball three times. This removes the risk of an incomplete pass (which saves the opponent a timeout or 40 seconds, a massive swing) or an interception. In the past, Reid has tended to try and just run the clock out and trust the defense to hold up with as little time left as possible.

However, the surest way to ACTUALLY end the game is to gain a first down. And the best way to do that, quite often, is to pass the ball. This is especially true when your quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. It was frustrating to watch the Chiefs holster their biggest gun in crunch time moments.

On first down with 4:10 remaining, Reid called a run (I’ve watched the play multiple times and based on the way it was blocked and what the receivers did, I’m fairly certain it was a called run and not an RPO) that saw Clyde Edwards-Helaire gain 7 yards. This is a positive play and set the Chiefs up for 2nd and 3 with 4:04 left in the game. It also forced the Buccaneers to burn a timeout.

Given that result it would have been very justifiable for Reid to try to run the ball again on 2nd down. Instead, he broke his tendencies and went with a more aggressive play.

Mahomes’ ability to read the field and make decisions in a split second make him incredibly dangerous in these situations. Here, he surveys the left side of the field as he drops back, allowing him to look at three different routes and how the Bucs are handling coverage. They try to bait him into a contested throw to Kelce, but Mahomes doesn’t bite.

What Mahomes does do is see that the linebackers have been split from the middle of the field, with one following Edwards-Helaire and the other looking to prevent a throw to Kelce. He also sees that Wylie and Reiter have pushed the pass rush to his left, creating a big gap for him to run through. He doesn’t hesitate, and immediately takes the open lane and sprints for a first down.

It’s worth noting that if Mahomes is even slightly less capable and quick in reading the field, or a little less decisive, this doesn’t work. Instead, it’s a first down that drops the Bucs’ chances of coming back substantially.

Tampa Bay chose to burn a timeout after the conversion, and after a called run (Reid was definitely still looking to see if they could gain necessary yardage the least risky way on first down) gained four yards, the Chiefs were once again in a position that they would have been perfectly justified in calling a 2nd down run. Instead, Reid again trust Mahomes to make a play. And it paid off, albeit in an unconventional way.

This snap was a “because he’s a playmaker” portion of why the best decision at the end of a game is to trust Mahomes with the ball. The initial reads are well defended, and the offensive line (on what was a very rough day overall) protected pretty well for the early portion of the snap. Eventually Wylie lost inside, but not before Mahomes was able to see the routes take Tampa Bay’s zone coverage too deep for them to do anything about him scrambling for another (and devastating for Tampa Bay) first down.

Mahomes’ ability as a scrambler is vastly underrated, as he’s one of the best in the league at moving the chains despite the fact that his athleticism isn’t as widely praised as players like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson. His combination of athleticism and otherworldly field vision allows him to pick the perfect moments to use his legs rather than his arm. It’s another thing defenses have to prepare for and makes Mahomes impossible to deal with when yards are at a premium.

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Reid knows all this, of course, and it has to have served as one of the reasons he was willing to break from conventional wisdom and trust his quarterback to gain first downs and work the clock.

The Buccaneers were forced to burn their final timeout, and the Chiefs utilized another first down run to get the game clock down to the two-minute warning.

With 2 minutes to go and Tampa Bay out of timeouts, Reid faced still another situation in which the conventional smart play is to just run the ball twice and give the Buccaneers the ball pinned deep in their own territory with 30(ish) seconds remaining. But Reid, yet again, on second down trusted his quarterback.

While this was a failed play, gaining only a couple of yards, it’s reflective as to why some of the concerns coaches have traditionally had to use the passing game to try and burn out the clock. One of the major concerns is either an incomplete pass or an interception.

With Mahomes, those concerns largely go away. He sees that the initial read isn’t there immediately and checks down to a throw that’s essentially as safe as a run play, with a higher potential benefit. Just like when discussing the scrambles above, Mahomes’ speed of decision making creates as safe a situation on a final drive as one can find without running the ball, and removes most of the downside of being more aggressive at the end of a game.

All of this is a long road to a short thought: Putting the ball in Patrick Mahomes’ hands in almost any situation, even one in which running out the clock is the goal, is preferable to running the football (you know, taking the ball OUT of his hands).

Reid was faced with another crucial decision on the next play, a 3rd and 7 with 1:15 left to play. Again, the Chiefs would have been perfectly justified to just run the ball for a few yards here and get another 45 seconds or so off the clock. They would have killed even more time on the ensuing punt, and odds are the Buccaneers would have gotten the ball back inside their own 20-yard-line with 25 or so seconds left to go and no timeouts left.

Instead, Reid opted to try and win the game outright with one of his best play calls of the night.

This play was brilliant for multiple reasons for both Mahomes and Reid. Let’s start with Mahomes. Keep in mind that Mahomes had just scrambled for a pair of devastating first down conversions this same drive. He takes advantage of the moving pocket to threaten to do the same here, which baits the the linebacker into not dropping back (remember Johnathan Abram from just last week?) and instead freeze in place to try and prevent a scramble.

Once Mahomes has baited the defense into moving at his will, he finds Tyreek Hill coming back towards him (sorry, that’s “top 3 NFL wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is much more than just a deep threat and is the most dangerous player in the game and the NFL needs to realize that.” But that’s a topic for another day) to end the game.

To appreciate Reid’s brilliance on this play, though, another angle helps.

Reid dials up a play that’s inherently designed to succeed in a high-leverage situation. First, note the moving pocket with the sliding protection. By doing this, and putting CEH around the edge, Reid accounts for the fact that the offensive line had been struggling against Tampa Bay’s pass rush. With Mahomes rolling left and the protection sliding, the majority of Buccaneer pass rushers never have a legitimate shot at creating quick pressure.

The problem with rolling Mahomes out would often be that it cuts the field in half, and takes away options in the receiving game. But Reid takes care of that by having all three of his most dependable options (Kelce, Hill, and Watkins) run routes to that side of the field. This means Mahomes has plenty of options available while being heavily protected.

That’s all well and good, but the short story is this: in situations that people would call “obvious” run downs with conventional wisdom, Reid opted instead to put the ball in the hands of his best player (and the best player anywhere in the world), and give him multiple options rather than forcing him into single read plays.

We’ll see how things go moving forward, but Reid putting his trust in Mahomes to close out the game shows a massive step forward in his approach. Hopefully he continues to do so, because as Mahomes has shown in multiple straight weeks, he’s the ultimate closer. In other words, going to Mahomes is trying to win, rather than just not lose.