A shot at history and Seth's Underdog Fantasy Picks

Reflecting on how Chiefs fans should enjoy the moment, and a new segment for a new CITN partner.

This post is UNLOCKED as we talk about the history the Chiefs are looking to make during these playoffs. If you want to come along for the ride here, going beyond the box score every step of the way, use the button below to subscribe for $12 a year forever.

Something felt incomplete to me yesterday after I finished writing about the Chiefs’ Divisional Round matchup against the Texans.

I couldn’t quite put my finger on what the issue was. I felt like I’d covered about all the film one could for the playoffs.

• I’d written about DJ Humphries vs the Broncos and the Humphries/Thuney decision Reid needs to make (UPDATE: The Chiefs are starting Thuney, per reports!)

• I’d written about Patrick Mahomes’ film from Weeks 15-17 and some “big picture” takeaways from it.

• I’d written about Hollywood Brown’s snaps and how I think they point towards a big playoff run.

• I’d written about the “other guys,” non-stars I think will have a major impact on these playoffs (14 guys made the cut!).

• I’d written about the matchup-specific stuff I have my eye on in KC/HOU.

What more is there? That’s a lot of content! A ton of film review and analysis! Why did I have this nagging feeling that I hadn’t said everything I have to say about the Kansas City Chiefs and their quest to bring home yet another Lombardi Trophy?

Then, last night, as I recorded Only Weird Games with my friends Josh Brisco and Nate Taylor (man, I love those guys), it hit me what I’d been missing. I’ve spent so much time talking about the SUBSTANCE of this Chiefs playoff run that I haven’t spent much time delving into the history and the emotion of it.

I wrote at the start of this season about what a monumental, historic thing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were setting out to do. Here’s what I wrote at the time.

The last time a professional football team won three consecutive championships, it was the Green Bay Packers in the 1965-1967 seasons, and one of those championships (the first one) was not a Super Bowl, as the NFL and AFL had not yet merged. If you need an idea as to how different the league was then, there were 14 teams in the NFL in 1965 (with 8 more in the AFL) and 16 in 1967 (with another 9 in the AFL). The salary cap wouldn’t become part of the league for another three decades. And again, the Super Bowl literally hadn’t been invented yet in that first “NFL Championship” that kicked off Green Bay’s three titles in a row.

A long road to a short thought? This is a chance at doing something that literally no one in the history of the game has accomplished. A chance to be able to say, definitively, “greatest team of all time” and leave no room for argument. And it’s worth stopping and thinking about that for a moment at all the legacies that the Chiefs are looking to enhance. It’s also worth stopping and reminding Chiefs fans (myself included) to sit back and enjoy the ride as they make the attempt. But let’s talk legacies first.

All of this remains true. You know what has changed? We’re closer. So much closer. When I wrote that piece (the date of their first game of the regular season) I noted that the Chiefs would not “succeed or fail in that quest today,” and that there was a lot of season left to go.

Well, that changes Saturday in a very real way. The Chiefs can’t SUCCEED at that quest on Saturday. However, they can accomplish 1/3 of the remaining task to do so. They’ve accomplished so much already by going 15-2 and securing the one-seed, thus allowing them to be as rested and healthy for a playoff run as possible. The goal is now within their grasp in a much more tangible way.

On the flip side, they can absolutely FAIL in that quest on Saturday. That’s an odd thought, isn’t it? The worst finish the Chiefs have had during Mahomes’ career is losing in overtime of the AFC Championship. It’s been a run of success only matched by the “second era” Patriots dynasty (they went as far as the AFC Championship 8 seasons in a row from 2011 through 2018). The idea that Kansas City could actually lose in the Divisional Round feels almost unreal. But there’s a reason “any given Sunday” is an expression. Styles make fights. Luck plays a big role in individual games. And sometimes, weird stuff happens.

If that seems somewhat pessimistic, make no mistake… I think the Chiefs will win and advance on Saturday. But the fact that they’re now in a place where the quest to threepeat could actually stop has made me considerably more contemplative about the journey of the last several seasons, as well as the last half-dozen years of Chiefs fanhood. Let’s think about where we’ve been to get where we are today. Because I think by doing so we can REALLY appreciate the moment we’re witnessing.

I won’t go back too far, because I don’t think it’s necessary. We don’t need to recount how irrelevant the Chiefs were for most of the 70’s and the 80’s… or how heartbreaking they became in the 90’s… or how that heartbreak found all new ways of happening in the early 2000’s… or how low they fell in the early 2010’s… or how even how once they returned to respectability upon the arrival of Andy Reid, it only signaled a return to fresh (and weird) heartbreak). You know. You were there. You remember how it impacted you.

You also remember how 2018 felt. The shock of seeing Patrick Mahomes be absolutely everything we’d been hoping for, after years of either being in QB hell or QB purgatory (all due respect to Alex Smith, who did so much for the organization), was unforgettable. Watching that Chiefs team overwhelm the league, as well as Mahomes be Mahomes for an entire season, was a once-in-a-lifetime experience.

Remember the endless waves of TDs against PIT? The “holy crap he’s different” throw to the back of the end zone vs SF that famously left Terez Paylor’s laughter booming across the press box at Arrowhead (I was there, and it was a moment I won’t forget)? The left-handed toss against DEN? The legendary shootout against the Rams on MNF? The 4th and 9 conversion against BAL? Remember what it felt like the first time you realized that Mahomes wasn’t just him, or just Him, but HIM?

Remember how things felt at the start of the 2019 season? The Chiefs had come SO close the year before to finally making it to the Super Bowl, only to lose in the most “Chiefs” way possible, with Dee Ford lining up offsides on what should have been a game-ending pick (on a side note, remember when using the term "Chiefs” as an adjective was a negative thing regarding the playoffs? That was not that long ago!). We had high hopes for the team, but there was always that background dread, earned over the course of so many seasons of heartbreak, that things would end the same way they had since the 60’s.

Of course, that’s not how that story ended. Mahomes got injured in the most fluky way imaginable, then came back and played at an incredibly high level. Kansas City went on one of the most improbable playoff runs in history, coming back from down 24, then down 10, then down 10 again on their way to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in the air to the delight (and shock) of Chiefs fans everywhere. The demons were slayed. The monkey was off their back.

Fast forward to the start of the 2022 season. Don’t remember it through the current lens you have now. Think about how you felt then. The Chiefs had fallen short of the ultimate prize two seasons in a row, a devastating Super Bowl blowout loss to the Bucs in 2020 and then a humiliating 2nd half AFC Championship meltdown against the Bengals, who had beaten the Chiefs in the regular season as well and were now the new “it” team. Tyreek Hill, the best receiver to ever suit up for the Chiefs, had been traded. The entire offense and defense had seen an overhaul.

At that time, a dynasty was not a given, or even an expectation. The hope was the Chiefs would get back on track and figure out a way to seize the reins of the AFC away from those dang Bengals.

And boy, did the Chiefs do just that. Mahomes won MVP while leading the best offense in the league, even without Hill. The defense took big steps forward based on that now-legendary 2022 draft. They won it all. And then, following an absolutely tumultuous regular season in 2023… they did it AGAIN. This time, they did it by winning in the Wild Card round and then going TO Buffalo and TO Baltimore to beat a pair of supposedly superior teams in their own house. The debate was settled. The Chiefs were a dynasty. Mahomes was an all-time great.

And now, here we are. The Chiefs are already one of the greatest dynasties in NFL history. But now, right here in front of us, is the chance for them to grab the title of greatest dynasty of all time and seize history in a way that I don’t know a team will ever be able to match (in the modern era, winning 3 in a row feels impossible, yet here we are). The weight of the moment is enormous.

So why am I writing about this? Because I want to remind you of the same thing I said as the Chiefs were about to try for their first Super Bowl in 50 years… Enjoy this. Enjoy the moment. Enjoy watching Travis Kelce, one of the greatest players in NFL history, try to summon “Playoff Trav” on more time. Enjoy watching future Hall of Famer Chris Jones close out 3rd downs and show up in the biggest moments. Enjoy watching Andy Reid push for sustained greatness. Enjoy watching Spags go full Spags every chance he gets. Enjoy a supporting cast that runs deep and is full of guys whose names shouldn’t be forgotten. Enjoy Patrick Mahomes, the greatest quarterback who has ever lived, try to take another step towards becoming the greatest winner in NFL history.

Enjoy every second of it. It’s been an absolute privilege to be a Chiefs fan these last 6 years. It’s the best experience in sports, and I don’t know that anyone has been particularly close. These moments, these truly historical moments, are rare. Savor them. Savor how great this team is, and how much fun it can be to cheer for them.

It’s a great time to be a Chiefs fan. I hope you enjoy their effort towards history Saturday. I wanted to remind all of you to do that, as well as remind myself! Here’s hoping there’s a lot of great film to watch and analyze next week, and that we’re talking about how Mahomes and company can take one more step forward in their quest for greatness.

Seth’s Picks for Chiefs/Texans

So in some news, the CITN has gone corporate!

Well, sort of. I’m partnering with Underdog Fantasy, where you can see how much you know ball with a variety of higher/lower picks, lineups, and other fantasy games with the opportunity for payouts.

What I’ve agreed to do is sort through their higher/lower entry possibilities, and pick some that I like throughout the playoffs. It’s a pretty nifty setup they’ve got, and a number of different stats you can play/project.

Use code CITN at the below link to sign up to get up to $1,000 in bonus cash on your first deposit:

https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-seth-keysor

With that in mind, here are some of the plays I really like, and why:

(Before we start… here’s a reminder to keep in mind with these games… know who you are! If you’re someone who feels like you know ball and just wants to have a little fun with it and see what happens, great! But know yourself and be responsible. Also, numbers are as of noonish on 1/17)

Mahomes higher than 24.5 rush yards

Mahomes is known to be a quality scrambler. His ability to buy time in and out of the pocket, and then take the easy first downs when they’re available, are part of what makes him so dangerous for defenses as it’s an extra layer they have to defend.

What doesn’t get talked about enough is that Mahomes generally ratchets up how MUCH he utilizes his feet when the playoffs arrive. He averages a little over 29 yards per game on the ground in the playoffs, as opposed to 20 yards per game during the regular season. As the playoffs hit, Mahomes is more prone to scrambling and taking matters into his own hands rather than forcing a throw and risking a negative play.

And in fact, the numbers are even more skewed than that when Mahomes is healthy, as the 2022 playoff run (in which he played on a bad ankle) lowered his rushing numbers. He averaged 20 yards per game on the ground that playoff run, as opposed to the 35 YPG last year and 39 in 2021. He was under 20 YPG on the ground in 2020, but was at 45 YPG the prior year. In other words, Mahomes generally runs a fair amount in the playoffs.

Additionally, the Texans’ pass rush is solid and should create some scenarios where Mahomes has to scramble, and they rank 30th in the league in expected points added and success rate against QB scrambles. You combine their issues in this area and Mahomes’ willingness to take off more in the playoffs, and this is a pick I like.

Samaje Perine higher than 9.5 receiving yards

I’m very comfortable with this pick for a couple of reasons. Primarily, I’ve watched Perine’s role in the offense maintain even after Isiah Pacheco came back from injury, and for good reason. Perine is an excellent receiving RB who has shown he can be trusted in pass protection at a higher level than Pacheco and arguably Kareem Hunt as well. He’s played the 3rd down ‘back role well, and has made enough plays to earn Mahomes’ trust.

Second, and probably more importantly, Perine has gone over 9.5 receiving yards every single week but one starting in Week 5. A single screen call or checkdown with space gets him this number. I think it may be low due to many believing that Pacheco’s snaps will rise in the postseason. But Perine has played well enough to keep the role he’s in, and that role should give him multiple opportunities to go over 9.5 receiving yards. This is especially true when you’re facing a team that’s as pass rush dependent as the Texans (which creates screen opportunities).

Xavier Worthy higher than 2.5 first half receptions

It’s tough to know who the Chiefs will feature in their first playoff game. There’s a strong argument to be made for Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, and even (to a lesser extent) DeAndre Hopkins (who has a number of different projections that are pretty low if you want to take a shot that he’ll be featured way more in the playoffs).

But Worthy has been a guy Andy Reid has been VERY intentional about getting involved in the offense, particularly with the short/quick stuff they’ve favored since Joe Thuney was shifted to left tackle. It’s been reported that the Chiefs will keep Thuney at LT on Saturday, so I’d expect more quick game shots that feature Worthy. Additionally, I can see Reid trying to dial him up a few times deep and intermediate as well to try and take advantage of a Texans defense that is almost certain to try and take away the quick game.

It’s worth noting that even a couple of receptions that get stuffed get you where you need to go with this pick.

Jayden Daniels higher than 238 yards

I’m going outside of Chiefs/Texans for this final one. The Lions defense and the Commanders offense are both getting a LOT of press right now. And Detroit deserves a ton of credit for what they managed to do to Minnesota’s potent offense two games in a row.

That said, styles make fights. And Detroit’s aggressive man coverage looks and pressure packages are a lot less likely to rattle Daniels than Sam Darnold in my opinion, who will take downfield shots against those looks. And because I think Detroit is likely to score a ton of points against Washington, I think Daniels is going to be throwing the ball much of the day.

Enjoy this weekend, play responsibly if you play, and remember… it’s a great time to be a Chiefs fan!